Thread by @asiahodl

What metrics are the most valuable as a price catalyst?
As DeFi hits bearish times, memes are giving way to fundamental analysis. Some data points are useless as a price signal (like TVL).

But below are the ones you want to look out for:
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First, why is TVL useless as a price signal?
+ TVL tracks capital -- which is mercenary and temporary
+ Not all capital is equal -- @Uniswap V3 is more efficient than V2
+ It's the max extractable value. In a selldown, investors care about downside protection, not max values
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How do we know a metric matters as a price signal?

Correlation will be high and price impact is orderly. We can deduce that "Active Users" is a relevant data point to track
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How about fees to tokenholders? Few care about fees in a bull market but it's crucial in a bearish one.

So in a bull market, protocols should hoard for a warchest. In a bear market, they need to pay dividend-like yields
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Quant analysis can only get you so far. Qualitative analysis matters -- like:
+ start and end dates of liquidity mining incentive programs
+ growing market share,
+ percentage of stablecoins on the platform
+ new product launches
+ integrations to scaling solutions, etc)
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In the report, we go through all the metrics important and unimportant in determining which data points matter in a bear market recovery. Fundamentals have never been so important to pay attention to.
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