Since 1972, the GOP has never won an election in which it won white men by less than 24 points.

In 2000, when Bush barely won, he won white men by 24 points. In 2004, when he barely won again, he won white men by 25 points.

In 2020, Trump won white men by 23 points.
#TrumpLost
1972 - Nixon won white men 66-31 (+35), won election
1976 - Ford won white men 51-47 (+4), lost election
1980 - Reagan won white men 59-32 (+27), won election
1984 - Reagan won white men 67-32 (+35), won election
1988- Bush won white men 63-36 (+27), won election
1992 - Bush won white men 40-37 (+3), lost election
1996 - Dole won white men 49-38 (+11), lost election
2000 - Bush won white men 60-36 (+24), won election
2004 - Bush won white men 62-37 (+25), won election
2008 - McCain won white men 57-41 (+16), lost election
2012 - No data available at this level.
2016 - Trump won white men 62-31 (+31), won election
2020 - Trump won white men 61-38 (+23), lost election
The GOP always wins white men as a group just as Democrats always win black voters as a group. But the issue for the GOP is margin.

Because it does so terribly badly with almost every other group, even a 23 point advantage among white men hasn't historically been good enough.
Again, as a group, the GOP hasn't won:
- Moderates since 1984
- Women (overall) since 1988
- 18-29 year olds since 1988
- "Other" ethnicities since 1988
- Postgraduates since 1988
- Asian Americans since 1996
- 30-44 year olds since 2004
And since 1980, here's what's happened with white college grads:

1980 - Reagan won them by 24 points
1984 - Reagan won them by 25 points
1988 - Bush won them by 21 points
1992 - Bush won them by 1 point (3 way race)
1996 - Dole won them by 4 points (3 way race)
2000 - Bush won them by 8 points
2004 - Bush won them by 11 points
2008 - McCain won them by 4 points
2012 - Romney won them by 14 points
2016 - Trump won them by 4 points
(worst ever to date by GOP in a race w/no major third party)
2020 - Trump lost them by 3 points
Here's a partial list of the various groups which Trump either won by a lesser margin in 2020 than in 2016 or lost by a greater margin in 2020 than in 2016 (i.e., he did worse with), according to national exit polls:

Men (all races combined)
Women (all races combined)
Whites
White college grads
White non-college grads
18-29 year olds (all races combined)
45-64 year olds (all races combined)
65 and older (all races combined)
Democrats
Independents
Liberals
Moderates
Post-grads
Catholics (all races combined)
White Catholics
Hispanic Catholics
White Born-Again Christians (yes, really. Trump won them 81-16 in 2016 and won them 76-24 in 2020).
Married people (all races combined)
Non-married people (all races combined)
People living in Suburbs
People living in cities of 50,000 or less and rural voters combined
White men
Exit poll information pulled from the following: (all originally from Edison Research)

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
cnn.com/election/2016/…
cnn.com/election/2020/…

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More from @TheValuesVoter

26 Jun
Just because a lot of the types who go to events like the #TrumpRally and who tweet out things like #TRUMP2024ToSaveAmerica might still believe his lies about the election, I’m here to help.

#TrumpLost. And it’s time everyone made their peace with that fact. Here’s some facts …
Read 19 tweets
26 Jun
Looking at now multiple polls from multiple pollsters over time on both the Republican Party favorability and Biden’s job approval, a couple of things are clear to me:

The GOP is losing ground with white men. Those with and w/o degrees. Even with white rural voters (FNC polls).
The Dems are losing a little bit of ground with black voters and a moderate amount of ground with latino voters.

Based on the FNC polls, Biden has closed a lot of ground with white evangelical voters.
It’s not clear to me that the time-tested demographic coalitions relied on by both parties are going to hold together for a lot longer. But since the GOP relies almost exclusively on winning white voters by enormous margins in order to win elections, I’d be worried if I were them
Read 9 tweets
26 Jun
Georgia’s new voting laws made absentee voting more difficult and some forms of voting, such as mobile voting run by Fulton County, outright illegal.

More than half of Georgia’s absentee votes in 2020 came from just 8 of its 159 counties. See if you notice any patterns.
GA counties w/half of absentee votes:
1) Cobb County: 28.8% black
2) Fulton County: 44.5% black
3) DeKalb County: 54.8% black
4) Gwinnett County: 29.8% black
5) Chatham County: 41.2% black
6) Cherokee County: 7.7% black
7) Clayton County: 72.8% black
8) Forsyth County: 4.4% black
In addition, the new Georgia Voting Law makes provisional voting nearly impossible. In 2020, 11,120 provisional ballots were cast in Georgia in the Presidential Election. The state was only decided by 11,779 votes.
Read 9 tweets
25 Jun
So far, I have found the following economic metrics to all be better so far at this point in Biden’s Presidency than it was at this point in Trump’s Presidency.

- GDP Growth (bea.gov)
- Number of jobs added (bls.gov)
- Dow Jones Industrial Index
In 2021, the first quarter GDP growth was +6.4%.

In 2017, the first quarter GDP growth was 2.3%.
(bea.gov)
Between February and May, 2017, the first four full months of Trump’s term in office, 683,000 jobs were added to US payrolls.

Between February and May, 2021, the first four fill months of Biden’s term in office, 2,158,000 jobs were added to US payrolls.
data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES…
Read 4 tweets
25 Jun
Good cops, and there are a whole lot of them in America, provide more value to society than we can ever pay them back in terms of salary and benefits. We need them badly.

But bad cops, like former officer #DerekChauvin, are an incalculable liability to society and to taxpayers.
This man, who is now a convicted murderer and under multiple federal indictments, had a gun, a badge and a taxpayer-funded salary less than 13 months ago today.

What is the impact of people like this on society? Let’s count the ways.
People like Chauvin and others who abuse their authority as officers:

- Hurt and kill the people they swore an oath to protect.
- Destroy the faith of many citizens in the idea of policing.
- Cost taxpayers a literal fortune. Nobody Defunds the Police more than bad cops.
Read 10 tweets
25 Jun
For all the GOP talking points about the border, let’s consider the actual Border Apprehension stats:

In 2021 (Biden’s Presidency)
01/2021 - 78,442
02/2021 - 101,117 (+28.9%)
03/2021 - 173,337 (+71.4%)
04/2021 - 178,854 (+3.18%)
05/2021 - 180,034 (+0.66%)
In 2019 (Trump’s Presidency)
01/2019 - 58,327
02/2019 - 76,545 (+31.2%)
03/2019 - 103,731 (+35.5%)
04/2019 - 109,415 (+5.5%)
05/2019 - 144,116 (+31.7%)

Source: CBP
The May, 2019 numbers, when Trump was President, were 80.0% of the May, 2021 numbers, when Biden was President.

There was a 130.0% increase between January and May, 2021, during Biden’s term.

And there was a 147.1% increase between January and May, 2019, during Trump’s term.
Read 6 tweets

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