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25 Jun, 6 tweets, 1 min read
For all the GOP talking points about the border, let’s consider the actual Border Apprehension stats:

In 2021 (Biden’s Presidency)
01/2021 - 78,442
02/2021 - 101,117 (+28.9%)
03/2021 - 173,337 (+71.4%)
04/2021 - 178,854 (+3.18%)
05/2021 - 180,034 (+0.66%)
In 2019 (Trump’s Presidency)
01/2019 - 58,327
02/2019 - 76,545 (+31.2%)
03/2019 - 103,731 (+35.5%)
04/2019 - 109,415 (+5.5%)
05/2019 - 144,116 (+31.7%)

Source: CBP
The May, 2019 numbers, when Trump was President, were 80.0% of the May, 2021 numbers, when Biden was President.

There was a 130.0% increase between January and May, 2021, during Biden’s term.

And there was a 147.1% increase between January and May, 2019, during Trump’s term.
You have to remember this while listening to Fox News and to your friendly neighborhood GOP politician. They have this nasty little habit of having rhetoric that doesn’t really give full context to the reality of the data.
So, reviewing a month-by-month comparison of increase in border apprehensions in 2021 and 2019:

FEBRUARY
2021 (Biden) +28.9% increase over previous month
2019 (Trump) +31.2% increase over previous month

MARCH
2021 (Biden) +71.4%
2019 (Trump) +35.5%
APRIL
2021 (Biden) +3.18% increase over previous month
2019 (Trump) +5.5% increase over previous month

MAY
2021 (Biden) +0.66%
2019 (Trump) +31.7%

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More from @TheValuesVoter

TheValuesVoter Profile picture
26 Jun
Looking at now multiple polls from multiple pollsters over time on both the Republican Party favorability and Biden’s job approval, a couple of things are clear to me:

The GOP is losing ground with white men. Those with and w/o degrees. Even with white rural voters (FNC polls).
The Dems are losing a little bit of ground with black voters and a moderate amount of ground with latino voters.

Based on the FNC polls, Biden has closed a lot of ground with white evangelical voters.
It’s not clear to me that the time-tested demographic coalitions relied on by both parties are going to hold together for a lot longer. But since the GOP relies almost exclusively on winning white voters by enormous margins in order to win elections, I’d be worried if I were them
Read 9 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
26 Jun
Georgia’s new voting laws made absentee voting more difficult and some forms of voting, such as mobile voting run by Fulton County, outright illegal.

More than half of Georgia’s absentee votes in 2020 came from just 8 of its 159 counties. See if you notice any patterns.
GA counties w/half of absentee votes:
1) Cobb County: 28.8% black
2) Fulton County: 44.5% black
3) DeKalb County: 54.8% black
4) Gwinnett County: 29.8% black
5) Chatham County: 41.2% black
6) Cherokee County: 7.7% black
7) Clayton County: 72.8% black
8) Forsyth County: 4.4% black
In addition, the new Georgia Voting Law makes provisional voting nearly impossible. In 2020, 11,120 provisional ballots were cast in Georgia in the Presidential Election. The state was only decided by 11,779 votes.
Read 9 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
25 Jun
So far, I have found the following economic metrics to all be better so far at this point in Biden’s Presidency than it was at this point in Trump’s Presidency.

- GDP Growth (bea.gov)
- Number of jobs added (bls.gov)
- Dow Jones Industrial Index
In 2021, the first quarter GDP growth was +6.4%.

In 2017, the first quarter GDP growth was 2.3%.
(bea.gov)
Between February and May, 2017, the first four full months of Trump’s term in office, 683,000 jobs were added to US payrolls.

Between February and May, 2021, the first four fill months of Biden’s term in office, 2,158,000 jobs were added to US payrolls.
data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES…
Read 4 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
25 Jun
Good cops, and there are a whole lot of them in America, provide more value to society than we can ever pay them back in terms of salary and benefits. We need them badly.

But bad cops, like former officer #DerekChauvin, are an incalculable liability to society and to taxpayers.
This man, who is now a convicted murderer and under multiple federal indictments, had a gun, a badge and a taxpayer-funded salary less than 13 months ago today.

What is the impact of people like this on society? Let’s count the ways.
People like Chauvin and others who abuse their authority as officers:

- Hurt and kill the people they swore an oath to protect.
- Destroy the faith of many citizens in the idea of policing.
- Cost taxpayers a literal fortune. Nobody Defunds the Police more than bad cops.
Read 10 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
24 Jun
So from 1876 through 1864, the Democratic Party won the majority of the 11 former Confederate states. 23 Presidential Elections in a row.

And since 1964, it's only won the majority of the former Confederate states once, in 1976.
Obviously, the Democratic Party of today is quite left-leaning and most of the former CSA states are right-leaning ideologically.

But that doesn't exactly explain this change.
For 86 years, most of the former Confederate states voted for Democrats during Presidential elections. No matter who the Democrat was.

And then, like a light switch, after 1964, it just stopped. With one notable exception in 1976 when former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter ran.
Read 6 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
22 Jun
As those of you who follow me know, I not only dive deep into polls but I also love it when I can find two groups of people who share multiple common demographic characteristics with one area being different.

So I noticed a couple more things.
White Evangelicals across the country tend to vote GOP. However, there is a pretty significant differences in the degree to which this is the case among white evangelicals in the north and white evangelicals in the south. Across multiple Presidential elections.
For example, in 2004, in North Carolina, Bush won white evangelicals 85-15 (+70). But in Michigan that year, Bush won white evangelicals 75-24 (+51).

That’s a 19 point difference.

pewforum.org/2012/12/07/ele…
Read 23 tweets

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