Looking at now multiple polls from multiple pollsters over time on both the Republican Party favorability and Biden’s job approval, a couple of things are clear to me:
The GOP is losing ground with white men. Those with and w/o degrees. Even with white rural voters (FNC polls).
The GOP is losing ground with white men. Those with and w/o degrees. Even with white rural voters (FNC polls).
The Dems are losing a little bit of ground with black voters and a moderate amount of ground with latino voters.
Based on the FNC polls, Biden has closed a lot of ground with white evangelical voters.
Based on the FNC polls, Biden has closed a lot of ground with white evangelical voters.
It’s not clear to me that the time-tested demographic coalitions relied on by both parties are going to hold together for a lot longer. But since the GOP relies almost exclusively on winning white voters by enormous margins in order to win elections, I’d be worried if I were them
The GOP may not be able to just count on white voters, especially white men, to just flip the lever for the (R) candidate because a bunch of GOP politicians click their heels three times while chanting “Critical Race Theory” or because Tucker Carlson throws another tantrum on-air
Likewise, Democrats would be smart to stop thinking that latino voters especially and black voters to a lesser degree are just going to vote for the Democratic candidate because of weird GOP racial stuff.
If you compare the two most recent Fox News polls:
Biden has gained 15 points among white men.
Biden has lost 3 points among white women.
Biden gained 10 points among whites with college degrees.
Biden gained 3 points among whites without college degrees.
Biden has gained 15 points among white men.
Biden has lost 3 points among white women.
Biden gained 10 points among whites with college degrees.
Biden gained 3 points among whites without college degrees.
Biden gained 12 points among white men with degrees.
Biden gained (checks math twice) 21 points among white men without degrees.
(NOTE: this tracks pretty well with the YouGov polls which I have been tracking)
Biden gained (checks math twice) 21 points among white men without degrees.
(NOTE: this tracks pretty well with the YouGov polls which I have been tracking)
https://twitter.com/thevaluesvoter/status/1405553164930195461
Biden gained 9 points among white women with degrees.
Biden lost 11 points among white women without degrees.
Biden gained 19 points among white evangelicals.
Biden gained 7 points among rural white voters.
Biden gained 1 point among suburban women.
Biden lost 11 points among white women without degrees.
Biden gained 19 points among white evangelicals.
Biden gained 7 points among rural white voters.
Biden gained 1 point among suburban women.
Biden lost 3 points with black voters.
Biden lost 11 points with latino voters
Biden gained 4 points among Trump. Voters.
All and all, not bad at all - unless you’re a GOP strategist relying on white voter outrage to work like it’s always worked.
And these are FOX polls.
Biden lost 11 points with latino voters
Biden gained 4 points among Trump. Voters.
All and all, not bad at all - unless you’re a GOP strategist relying on white voter outrage to work like it’s always worked.
And these are FOX polls.
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