Budget watchdog announces cost of Brexit at £1,200 for each person in Britain - Mirror Online
Oh. If an household consists of 2 adults & 2 children, then that is more than the Treasury 2016 pre referendum estimate of £4,300 per household mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
Here you are. To be fair the lower bound rate is £1300 per capita.
But over 15 years.
Yet here we are.
2021 and only 5 months out of the transition period and 1 yr 5m after we left.
OBR says real business investment has barely grown since the referendum, whereas the March 2016 forecast was fir 20% growth.
OBR said the economy had only seen a third of the impact of Brexit so far.
Another third will happen over the next five years, and the remainder after 2025.
The figure amounts to £14.6 billion a year by 2025 - more or less the £350 million a week written on the side of Boris Johnson ’s bus, less the ‘rebate’ from the EU.
That report was in March 2020 - just before Covid lockdown in the U.K.
What now?
As @SDinPraxis points out this report was BEFORE large chunks of capital were moved out of the City. Now estimated at £2 trillion, although some of that moved in 2019 and early 2020.
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I’ve been thinking about the PHE data on infections, hospitalisations and deaths from test positive Delta cases (see left) v today’s vaccine data (R- h/t @HugoGye )
The pool of totally unvaccinated people is 25-26 million.
The pool of 1-dosed is 11.7 million - a chunk of which will be within 21 days of vaccination.
The pool of 2-dosed is just short of 30 million. But a good chunk still within 14 days of second dose.
So the cohort with SOME vaccination is markedly bigger than those with NO dose.
🦠 Yet you can see that the unvaccinated outpaces the vaccinated when it comes to cases.
🏥 & hospitalisations (even if not by as much as one might have hoped, but time to build immunity could change that picture in the next 6 weeks)
What a surprise. Daniel Kawczynski (who is now trying to play the victim, claiming bullying!) demonstrated a complete lack of insight into his conduct, according to the official report.
He claimed one of the complainants was “a member of the snowflake generation” used language that was extreme, but not profane and appeared to be under the influence of alcohol in one of the conversations.
The complainants also said he lied in a WhatsApp group message about the incidents.
When viruses jump to humans it would be "very rare for them to be a perfect," said Prof Wendy Barclay, Imperial College virologist. "They settle in and then they have a great time."
“There are examples of viruses from flu pandemics to Ebola making the jump and then accelerating.”
“It's "foolish", @ArisKatzourakis , “to attempt to put a number on how high it could go”, but he can easily see further jumps in transmission over the next couple of years. “Other viruses have far higher R0s and the record holder, measles, can cause explosive outbreaks.”
"There is still space for it to move higher," said Prof Barclay. "Measles is between 14 and 30 depending on who you ask, I don't know how it's going to play out."