I’ve been thinking about the PHE data on infections, hospitalisations and deaths from test positive Delta cases (see left) v today’s vaccine data (R- h/t @HugoGye )
The pool of totally unvaccinated people is 25-26 million.
The pool of totally unvaccinated people is 25-26 million.
The pool of 1-dosed is 11.7 million - a chunk of which will be within 21 days of vaccination.
The pool of 2-dosed is just short of 30 million. But a good chunk still within 14 days of second dose.
So the cohort with SOME vaccination is markedly bigger than those with NO dose.
The pool of 2-dosed is just short of 30 million. But a good chunk still within 14 days of second dose.
So the cohort with SOME vaccination is markedly bigger than those with NO dose.
🦠 Yet you can see that the unvaccinated outpaces the vaccinated when it comes to cases.
🏥 & hospitalisations (even if not by as much as one might have hoped, but time to build immunity could change that picture in the next 6 weeks)
⚰️& deaths - but not by a lot, except 2-dose
🏥 & hospitalisations (even if not by as much as one might have hoped, but time to build immunity could change that picture in the next 6 weeks)
⚰️& deaths - but not by a lot, except 2-dose
I want to get over three things.
1/. The vaccinations are having a positive effect (but we need vaccine specific data to be more sure about which vaccine is providing best protection.
1/. The vaccinations are having a positive effect (but we need vaccine specific data to be more sure about which vaccine is providing best protection.
2/. The more people vaccinated results in a sort of compound interest of benefit if transmission reduced . More data would be welcome but it looks promising to me.
3/. We don’t yet know the extent to which NPIs in older groups are preserving better outcomes. More data needed
3/. We don’t yet know the extent to which NPIs in older groups are preserving better outcomes. More data needed
The Press conference today has some useful slides from @CMO_England
Vaccination data updated to today.
Vaccination data updated to today.
When it comes to protection against SYMPTOMATIC CASES (NB NOT against INFECTION or TRANSMISSION ) you can see the benefit
Esp 2-dose
But I do think it is time we got vaccine specific update as these are aggregate data
Some of us may do well to be more cautious than others.
Esp 2-dose
But I do think it is time we got vaccine specific update as these are aggregate data
Some of us may do well to be more cautious than others.
It is LIKELY that reduced infection also means reduced transmission due to reduced viral loads but we do not know how this will work with the DELTA variant.
When it comes to HOSPITALISATIONS the reduction in hospitalisation is clear even with 1-dose but especially with 2-dose.
But we need vaccine specific data in case high performance from one vaccine is hiding poorer performance from another.
But we need vaccine specific data in case high performance from one vaccine is hiding poorer performance from another.
I may have missed it but I did not see an equivalent slide for deaths.
Why? Maybe bigger numbers will provide bigger statistical differences than we are seeing in my earlier tweet.
It is early days for DELTA.
Why? Maybe bigger numbers will provide bigger statistical differences than we are seeing in my earlier tweet.
It is early days for DELTA.
The contrast in hospital admissions in the over 65 year olds v under 65 year olds is striking (left to the end of Jan) Right for May -June
Reversed
BUT it is early days for Delta that really only started clear increase in the last two months and more recently in older groups
Reversed
BUT it is early days for Delta that really only started clear increase in the last two months and more recently in older groups
We would be mad to ignore what has happened in the NW.
The Region is further ahead than other Regions and acts as a canary in the Coal-mine.
It is clear the trend is following elsewhere.
The Region is further ahead than other Regions and acts as a canary in the Coal-mine.
It is clear the trend is following elsewhere.
The dark brown and beige has been growing pretty fast
In my own area (Cheltenham, Gloucestershire - SW) it has gone from 0.1% positivity less than 3 weeks ago to 1.8-1.9% a couple of days ago. An 18 fold increase.
In my own area (Cheltenham, Gloucestershire - SW) it has gone from 0.1% positivity less than 3 weeks ago to 1.8-1.9% a couple of days ago. An 18 fold increase.
NW merely acts as the canary in the coal-mine for hospitalisations too.
All areas are up and the current measure are insufficient to hold back case growth.
Indeed there has been some relaxation for weddings, funerals and some other events.
Expect it all to rise
All areas are up and the current measure are insufficient to hold back case growth.
Indeed there has been some relaxation for weddings, funerals and some other events.
Expect it all to rise
Indeed @CMO_England was at pains to spell out that we should expect cases and hospitalisations and deaths to continue to rise.
Again.
They are trying to sell that we should “live with it” rather than really work hard to crush it to gift us more freedoms not that much later
Again.
They are trying to sell that we should “live with it” rather than really work hard to crush it to gift us more freedoms not that much later
The focus of all of us should be in the fact that the current measures are not enough to stop the pretty fast growth of DELTA cases and hospitalisations. Deaths lag.
That gives us a clue, given vaccines are clearly having a positive effect, how powerful this variant is
That gives us a clue, given vaccines are clearly having a positive effect, how powerful this variant is
Meanwhile our PM waffles, stutters, and makes little sense.
https://twitter.com/HillyFoz/status/1404491256189927430
Let’s just look at the dates on this chart. Hardly any Delta variant end of April early May.
See where we are 6-7 weeks later.
That is some powerful variant and let’s not be fools & underestimate it.
That has been what has got us here.
See where we are 6-7 weeks later.
That is some powerful variant and let’s not be fools & underestimate it.
That has been what has got us here.
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