📌1 April to 6 June 2021 :19,543 community cases & 377 hospitalisations where a specific variant of COVID-19 was confirmed.
📌Of these totals, 7,723 cases & 134 hospitalisations = Delta variant. People with underlying conditions were more at risk of being hospitalised
📌. Overall, a strong vaccine effect did not clearly manifest until at least 28 days after the first vaccine dose (HR 0·32, 95% CI 0·22–0·46; appendix p 3).
📌 Among S gene-negative cases (ALPHA VARIANT), the effect of vaccination (at least 28 days after first or second dose) was to reduce the risk of hospital admission (HR 0·28, 95% CI 0·18–0·43) compared to unvaccinated. 👏
📌The hazard ratio for risk of hospital admission for S gene-positive cases (ALPHA) was 0·38 (95% CI 0·24–0·58), with an interaction test p value of 0·19, suggesting that there was no evidence of a differential vaccine effect on hospital admissions among those first testing +ve
When it comes to protection against infection (which, in turn, is likely to have knock on consequences for TRANSMISSION and R rate)
📌at least 14 days after the second dose, BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine) offered very good protection: 92% (95% CI 90–93) S gene-negative (ALPHA), 79% (75–82) S gene-positive. (DELTA)
So good VE re INFECTIVENESS from Pfizer, but lower for DELTA than ALPHA
📌 Protection associated with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine) was, however, substantial but reduced: 73% (95% CI 66–78) for S gene-negative cases (ALPHA) versus 60% (53–66) for those S gene-positive (DELTA)
So substantial but lower VE re INFECTIVITY re AZ than Pfizer and re DELTA v ALPHA .
It may be a question of timing, needing larger numbers and details of cohorts involved. Anecdotally DELTA is bringing in a younger cohort to hospitals so more complete data would be welcome
ArgH? SGene Positive is DELTA not Alpha.
So sorry
So, returning to the PHE chart that landed late yesterday.
The confidence intervals are pretty wide (insufficient numbers / ? Cohorts?) and the landing point for VE hospitalisation does not seem to be in the centre of the CI point
More information/ data might help elucidate
I have not commented on the VE re infections as I would@like to know the raw numbers involved.
The other reason I think it would be wise to wait for more granular data is that this Crick Institute study looks at Pfizer v DELTA and it suggested a similar reduction in neutralising Abs as BETA ( 🇿🇦 ) and also waning esp in older cohort after 3m
As SAGE points out, 187 admissions is 4 doublings away from Apr 2020 peak and less than 5 from Jan 2021 peak.
At 9 day doubling, that's *5 to 7* weeks from now - just after new July step 4 date.
Johnson Brilliance
“The next ten days are mostly locked in from recent case rises. That means in 10 days we will likely see over 250 hospital admissions a day (using 4% relationship as approx estimate).”
Just when you think you’ve got it beat, Covid-19 somehow comes back stronger. Like Arnold Schwarzenegger but without the charm this Terminator of a virus has an “I’ll be back” menace that risks undoing all the hard work of the UK’s stunning vaccine rollout huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/will-joh…
Fluffing his lines, the PM referred to “the adults of this company” (he meant “country”) and then wrongly declared the new unlocking date was July 29th (correcting it later to July 19th).
Polling shows most of the public are relaxed about a delay, but Johnson is acutely aware that the 24% who are unhappy include several of his own backbenchers, and it showed
I’ve been thinking about the PHE data on infections, hospitalisations and deaths from test positive Delta cases (see left) v today’s vaccine data (R- h/t @HugoGye )
The pool of totally unvaccinated people is 25-26 million.
The pool of 1-dosed is 11.7 million - a chunk of which will be within 21 days of vaccination.
The pool of 2-dosed is just short of 30 million. But a good chunk still within 14 days of second dose.
So the cohort with SOME vaccination is markedly bigger than those with NO dose.
🦠 Yet you can see that the unvaccinated outpaces the vaccinated when it comes to cases.
🏥 & hospitalisations (even if not by as much as one might have hoped, but time to build immunity could change that picture in the next 6 weeks)
What a surprise. Daniel Kawczynski (who is now trying to play the victim, claiming bullying!) demonstrated a complete lack of insight into his conduct, according to the official report.
He claimed one of the complainants was “a member of the snowflake generation” used language that was extreme, but not profane and appeared to be under the influence of alcohol in one of the conversations.
The complainants also said he lied in a WhatsApp group message about the incidents.