Thread by @fascinatorfun

🦠 7742 new cases (36%⬆️ on same day last week, 45.5% on rolling 7 day average)

Worth noting that Monday - Friday of last week every day was over 7k cases by specimen date. Wednesday a few cases off 8k.

It isn’t more testing.

ENGLAND positivity it up again. 2.2%.

https://twitter.com/LawrenceGilder/status/1404458021267423235

🏥 data is very laggy with last complete day on admissions being Tuesday 8th June.

But IN hospital data for England indicates a steady climb from 860 a week ago to 993 today. ⬆️. A 15.6% increase

ICU 🛌 133 to 170 in the same period. ⬆️ A 27.8% increase.

💉 277k doses of vaccinations given in total.

A a bit Meh given the place we are in - but clinics have been working long and busy hours.

https://twitter.com/hugogye/status/1404425175408517120

H/T @Dr_D_Robertson fir the summary

- case growth rate 49% per week
- hospitalizations growth rate 47% per week
- patients in ICU/HDU beds increasing
- cases and hospitalizations *not* decoupled

The problem is we already have a massive backlog of non Covid work to catch up on and every bed occupied by an urgent Covid patient is a bed that cannot be occupied by a patients needing elective surgery.

Something we need to avoid quite urgently.

CHELTENHAM!

‼️ 198 cases (by swab date) in the week up to 13-6-21.

In the week to 20-5-21 we had just 3 cases

In fact we had just 8 in the week to 29 May. Barely 2 weeks ago! Positivity then was 0.1%

Now it is c 1.8%

An 18 fold increase.

It is beginning to show in hospital patients. Still low compared to many but three times the number we had before measures were relaxed on 17-5-21 and we know how quickly that can change.

Hospitals lag cases. Deaths lag hospital cases

I am hearing a lot of sirens today.

7 day Rolling average by specimen date (left)

Percentage change (right) remembering that the most recent couple of days are likely to be incomplete as tests are processed