Just when you think you’ve got it beat, Covid-19 somehow comes back stronger. Like Arnold Schwarzenegger but without the charm this Terminator of a virus has an “I’ll be back” menace that risks undoing all the hard work of the UK’s stunning vaccine rollout huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/will-joh…
Fluffing his lines, the PM referred to “the adults of this company” (he meant “country”) and then wrongly declared the new unlocking date was July 29th (correcting it later to July 19th).
Polling shows most of the public are relaxed about a delay, but Johnson is acutely aware that the 24% who are unhappy include several of his own backbenchers, and it showed
“To oversee 1 Covid wave is a misfortune, to allow 2 begins to look like carelessness. But to trigger a third wave, squandering all the good work of your own vaccine success story, could be seen as unforgivable by a public which has to date been incredibly forgiving of its PM”

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More from @fascinatorfun

15 Jun
🔥We have seen cases double every 9 days or so recently. We can expect hospital admissions to do so as well.

96 people with Covid were admitted on 4th June. 9 days later, on 13th June, 187 people were admitted - almost double.
As SAGE points out, 187 admissions is 4 doublings away from Apr 2020 peak and less than 5 from Jan 2021 peak.

At 9 day doubling, that's *5 to 7* weeks from now - just after new July step 4 date.

Johnson Brilliance
“The next ten days are mostly locked in from recent case rises. That means in 10 days we will likely see over 250 hospital admissions a day (using 4% relationship as approx estimate).”

Then what?

What’s changed?

People I know are much more sociable.
Read 7 tweets
15 Jun
🦠 7673 new cases. (⬆️ 38.8% on rolling 7 day averages)

ENGLAND positivity rate ⬆️ again. Now 2.3%. It isn’t more testing. LFT testing is generally down.

⚰️ 10 (28 day) deaths.

💉368.5k doses administered.

I shall look at hospital data separately as headline figures old.
🏥 admissions data - all 4 nations dates back to 9th June: 184 ENGLAND alone exceeded that with 187 admissions on Sunday 13th.

🛌 IN HOSPITAL: The last 4 nations data was on Sunday but since then England has increased from 947 to 1030. 83 more.

1214 taking most recent
ICU 🛌 England alone 187 today

With an additional 18 from Scotland and Wales yesterday.

So over 200. Definite move upwards.
Read 6 tweets
15 Jun
Late yesterday PHE released a new chart regarding vaccine efficacy.

Welcome that it displayed data separately for Pfizer and AZ and fir Alpha and Delta variants

However the outcomes are markedly different from the table c3 weeks ago and markedly different from the Scottish data
This is the chart and the link.

khub.net/web/phe-nation…

It is a pre print so there pay be changes.

Also not much in the way of supporting data (with wide confidence intervals

They suggest similar second dose efficacy AGAINST HOSPITALISATION Pfizer (96%) to AZ (92%)
In fact marginally better 2nd dose performance against delta than Alpha.

But we know nothing of the respective cohorts or numbers involved, age groups and timescales and it seems prudent to wait for that.
Read 18 tweets
14 Jun
I’ve been thinking about the PHE data on infections, hospitalisations and deaths from test positive Delta cases (see left) v today’s vaccine data (R- h/t @HugoGye )

The pool of totally unvaccinated people is 25-26 million.
The pool of 1-dosed is 11.7 million - a chunk of which will be within 21 days of vaccination.

The pool of 2-dosed is just short of 30 million. But a good chunk still within 14 days of second dose.

So the cohort with SOME vaccination is markedly bigger than those with NO dose.
🦠 Yet you can see that the unvaccinated outpaces the vaccinated when it comes to cases.

🏥 & hospitalisations (even if not by as much as one might have hoped, but time to build immunity could change that picture in the next 6 weeks)

⚰️& deaths - but not by a lot, except 2-dose
Read 18 tweets
14 Jun
🦠 7742 new cases (36%⬆️ on same day last week, 45.5% on rolling 7 day average)

Worth noting that Monday - Friday of last week every day was over 7k cases by specimen date. Wednesday a few cases off 8k.

It isn’t more testing.

ENGLAND positivity it up again. 2.2%.
🏥 data is very laggy with last complete day on admissions being Tuesday 8th June.

But IN hospital data for England indicates a steady climb from 860 a week ago to 993 today. ⬆️. A 15.6% increase

ICU 🛌 133 to 170 in the same period. ⬆️ A 27.8% increase.
💉 277k doses of vaccinations given in total.

A a bit Meh given the place we are in - but clinics have been working long and busy hours.
Read 8 tweets
14 Jun
What a surprise. Daniel Kawczynski (who is now trying to play the victim, claiming bullying!) demonstrated a complete lack of insight into his conduct, according to the official report.
He claimed one of the complainants was “a member of the snowflake generation” used language that was extreme, but not profane and appeared to be under the influence of alcohol in one of the conversations.
The complainants also said he lied in a WhatsApp group message about the incidents.
Read 8 tweets

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