Thread by @morcos_pierre

[Thread] My take on the communiqué of the #NATO summit in Brussels. Brace yourself for a long 🧵 on the main takeaways from this 79-paragraph long declaration 👇

nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…

1/ Values: Compared to the 2018 communiqué, today's declaration has a new para on transatlantic values which are described as "the bedrock of [NATO's] unity, solidarity, and cohesion". Allies also commit to consult "when [their] fundamental values and principles are at risk".

This para is a first step in the right declaration, even though more could still be done (see my piece bellow). The adoption of a new strategic concept will offer a new opportunity to demonstrate allies' genuine commitment to transatlantic values.

warontherocks.com/2021/06/nato-s…

2/ NATO 2030: One year and a half after London, NATO leaders have agreed on a set of measures to adapt the alliance in 7 key areas:

➡️ Political consultations
➡️ Collective defense
➡️ Resilience
➡️ New technologies
➡️ Partnerships
➡️ Capacity building
➡️ Climate change

NATO leaders also invited Secretary General @jensstoltenberg to develop a new Strategic Concept. Allies will closely monitor this process (negotiation by NATO countries and endorsement by NATO leaders).

On the sensitive issue of resources, the communiqué is carefully drafted: the NATO 2030 agenda sets a "higher level of ambition" and will require "adequate resourcing through national defense expenditure and common funding".

3/ Russia: If there was any doubt about NATO's drifting away from its core missions, this communiqué is crystal clear. Russia is mentioned 61 times in 16 paragraphs. A huge part of the communiqué is about NATO's response to the 🇷🇺 challenge (collective defense, arms control).

Allies reaffirm NATO's dual approach toward Moscow which combines firmness and dialogue. The communiqué notably mentions 🇷🇺 military build-up, assertive posture and provocative activities (including disinformation campaigns, malicious cyber attacks).

At the same time, NATO countries also remain "open to a periodic, focused, and meaningful dialogue" with Russia, notably to avoid misunderstanding and miscalculation and increase transparency and predicability.

4/ Collective defense: Para 22 offers a great summary of how NATO is strengthening its deterrence and defense posture "with increased defence spending, modern capabilities, enhanced political and military responsiveness, and higher readiness of our forces".

The declaration also reaffirms the nuclear nature of the alliance. The language in para 40 is very similar to the 2018 declaration ("as long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO will remain a nuclear alliance").

Still on collective defense, there are also interesting paras on cyber (#32) and the outer space (#33) which are worth reading. The declaration notably explains how an attack in these domains could be considered as a conventional attack (triggering an activation of article 5).

5/ Arms control: Allies outlines several times in the declaration how arms control is paramount for transatlantic security, notably in the context of the end of the INF treaty. On this, leaders commit not to "deploy land-based nuclear missiles in Europe", an important statement.

Allies also welcome the extension of New START Treaty by 🇺🇸 and 🇷🇺, and are supportive of future strategic talks between the two countries. "Close consultations" between allies on these arms control discussions will be sought.

6/ Fight against terrorism: Terrorism is described as a "direct threat" to NATO. The declaration explains how NATO will pursue its assistance to #Afghanistan, mentions NATO's expanding role in #Iraq, and has even a para on #Sahel.

7/ China: Paragraphs #55 and #56 on #China draw a lot of attention. Many things strike me. First, the "systemic challenges" mentioned in the declaration are mainly related to the security and defense realm (expansion of its nuclear arsenal, defense cooperation with Russia).

Second, the declaration also underlines that allies will seek to maintain "a constructive dialogue with China". This is consistent with EU's broad approach describing 🇨🇳 as a "partner, competitor and rival".

Third, the communiqué is silent about how NATO could respond to the challenges posed by 🇨🇳. That could be a task for the new strategic concept. Some personal thoughts on this 👇

csis.org/analysis/natos…

8/ EU-NATO: The communiqué uses existing formulations to describe the importance of 🇪🇺 for NATO ("unique and essential partner", "importance of a stronger and more capable European defense").

The paragraph on EU-NATO cooperation seems stronger than previous declarations though ("unprecedented levels", "importance of EU-NATO cooperation in the face of current and evolving security challenges").

But beyond the communiqué, the real game changer is the very supportive approach of President Biden toward the European Union.

https://twitter.com/Ph_Etienne/status/1403764600085135366?s=20

9/ Next summit: NATO leaders will meet again in Spain in 2022 and then in Lithuania. Next year's summit will be important as leaders will endorse the new strategic concept.

Of course, more (so much more) could be said about other issues addressed in this declaration (open door policy, climate, resilience, NPT, ...) but I will stop there ! The document could be cumbersome but it is worth reading carefully. [End]