Thread on BBIL’s justification of higher Covaxin’s prices and the media’s gullible coverage of BBIL’s claims about costs, pricing and output. 1. Most stories in the business media are solely based on the BBIL’s press release of June 15, 2021, without any contestation.
2. To innocent journos who know little about manufacturing and costs, BBIL explains vaccine making has many steps and risks associated with production and marketing of a pharma product. It doesn’t tell us that these risks were known to it BEFORE it undertook to develop Covaxin.
3. It refers to the “complex” manufacturing process associated with the inactivated virus vaccine platform. Again, it does not bother to tell us that nobody forced the company to adopt this platform. It was a choice BBIL made, with its eyes open.
4. Significantly, for a vaccine developed in partnership with the GoI, especially because the basic foundational work was done in publicly funded labs, BBIL is extremely coy about how much support it has received. So, its claims on costs are unsubstantiated.
5. It pretends to ask why Covaxin is costlier but has little by way of explanation. It makes vague references to costs associated with royalties it has to pay but is silent about the significant costs associated with clinical trials, which we know were largely borne by the public
6. Talking in general about costs without any specifics does not in any way justify its claims that Covaxin costs almost twice as much as Covishield because of these costs. It digresses into irrelevant details about its plant having to be spread over a larger area…
7. but misses the sig point that nobody forced it to adopt this platform.
8. In effect, BBIL is adopting double standards. In pricing, it seeks a free hand, but while selling it seeks the market’s forgiveness by taking into account the special “complexities” of the platform it has chosen of its own free will. The word for this is hypocrisy.
9. Most importantly, we know BBIL has struggled to increase output. Its vaccines account for just 12 % of vaccinations so far (since January 2021). In the first half of June (after the May slump) Covaxin vaccinations have been at an avg of about 0.52 million doses/day.
10. This means a monthly rate of 15.6 m doses, a far cry from the 55 m doses/month that was projected for July by the Govt in the SC hearings. In fact, it remains to be seen whether even this surge in 15 days of June remains sustainable over a longer time frame,
11. A fundamental question that ought to be raised by any reporter familiar with industrial production and capacities ought to be this: how far is the constrained capacity responsible for the higher cost of Covaxin? This is because cost per unit is a function of scale economies.
12. If scaling up is proving go be a problem, then these are of BBIL’s own making in terms of underestimating the challenges and instead providing the media with a gung-ho narrative. The only redeeming feature is that the NaMO Govt has been a willing partner in this misadventure.
13. BBIL’s claim that the Covaxin price of Rs. 150/dose, at which it supplies the GoI, is “unsustainable” is unverifiable for the simple reason that we do not know the costs. It cannot seek the logic of the market, but yet somehow seek insulation from competition.
14. Here is an example of innocent, gullible coverage that can only be described as press release journalism. No attempt to check the facts, counter claims or even compare it to previous claims made by BBIL theprint.in/health/complex…
15. Here is another example of naive journalism that actually justifies dual pricing of vaccines without an iota of evidence or reason thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/…
17. This too, from a old and venerable publication, is a story that seems to be afraid to go beyond the press release business-standard.com/article/curren…
Thread on the yawning gap between vaccine procurement and production
1. This is in the light of the Govt announcement on June 8 (VK Paul, head, Group on Vaccination) that the Govt is set to procure 770 million doses b/w Aug and Dec 2021.
2. To place the numbers in context: India has so far delivered about 235 m doses, of which about 90 % are Covishield. In April, the avg daily vaccination rate was 2.935 m, which dipped to 1.928 m/day in May - fall of 34% . Things improved in June, but not convincingly enough.
3. In the first 4 days of June the daily strike rate was almost 4 m doses but yesterday it was just 2.740, a drop of almost one-third. IOW, things look up but not convincingly enough.
1. Most important takeaway: This is not a course correction. It is a mere amendment to the disastrous vaccine policy. Why do I say this?
2. The decision to provide “free” vaccines to states for 18-44 is welcome, but it comes with no intent to streamline vaccine distribution by making it dependent on objective, normative and verifiable standards. The arbitrary allocations to states will continue.
3. The only difference is that instead of a three-tiered pricing regime, there will be a two-tier pricing regime as 25 % of vaccine allocations will be to private sector. Already, how this is happening, and what prices are being charged is shrouded in opacity. This won’t change.
THREAD on BBIL’s saga of an incredibly spun yarn, based on its most recent release, today. 1. Starts with a treatise on vaccine making for the intellectually-challenged journalists - “complex and multifactorial process” with 100s of steps, it says.
2. Explains how the regulatory pathway is complex and takes time, effort, coordination with supply chains, etc. Generally, more fluff
3. Now comes to the real deal - that scaling production is a "step-by-step process". (BTW, what manufacturing process isn’t?). But here’s the innocently-couched punch: “There is a four-month lag time for COVAXIN to translate into actual vaccination.”
THREAD - on how companies mislead, and the media obliges obediently or unwittingly — the case of the elusive Covaxin shot. 1. As vaccine shortages, especially of Covaxin, mount across the country, BBIL issued a release y’day announcing a 200 m dose/annum expansion in capacity.
2. The benefit of the expanded capacity will become available by “Q4 2021”, it said. Preposterously, BBIL claimed that its capacity volumes would now exceed 1 billion doses. Now that is a lot of vaccines.
3. In comparison, Oxford-AZ’s entire planned planned global doses (incl from SII) for 2021 is 2.1 billion doses. Pfizer-BioNTech’s capacity is 3 billion, of which only 2.96 m doses remain available for the rest of 2021.
THREAD
On why the argument that India ought to have vaccinated its "own" people before supplying other countries is misplaced for several reasons. First, the vaccine manufactured by SII is subject to conditions from original funders (not GoI), Covax, the multilateral facility.
2. These orders pre-date the GoI's orders both in time and qty. The Covax facility provided funding to AstraZeneca/SII conditional on supplies, so there are contractual obligations. It is another matter that the NaMo Govt tried use it to fly the Vishwaguru flag.
3. There is simply no way SII’s obligations could have been avoided. So far, about 180 million doses have been delivered in India; about 66 m doses have been exported. Significantly, this 1/3 ratio (roughly) may be the division of supplies between domestic and exports in future
THREAD 1. On Serum Institute of India, which is among the highest profit margins in India, among companies with a turnover of over Rs. 5,000 crores (h/t @AnilKSood5 )
SII’s operating margin (operating profit/turnover) has NEVER fallen below 50 per cent ever since fiscal 2012!
2. SII is not a very large company - its total sales (2020) was just a little less than Rs. 6,000 crores. In comparison Tata Steel’s turnover was 1.4 lakh crores! But what is striking is its strike rate — its profit/turnover ratio.
3. In fact its average net profit margin (net profit/turnover) in the last decade has been about 44 %. Now, having enjoyed that kind of normal profit, one can sympathise with Poonawala when says he would like to make super profits!