Thread by @DrSturg

Took a mini #socialmedia break and on my return, my first impulse was to snarkily tweet "The plural of anecdote is not data." But that's probably not clear. Here's what I mean.

2/ I think humans are hardwired to learn from the experiences of others, and stories that engage the emotions are particularly effective. We have entire industries built around creating these stories to manipulate beliefs and actions, after all.

3/ Those stories can even be completely made up and still have powerful impacts. Think about...the tortoise and the hare. Fictional event to make a point Or George Washington and the cherry tree. Myth ABOUT A REAL PERSON used to make a point.

4/ To reasonably believe something is true, you have to observe many instances of it and be pretty particular about the circumstances. Let's go back to cherry trees. Does the tree in grandma's backyard have sour cherries or ripe ones?

5/ If I go pull off one cherry and taste it and describe it as sweet, does that mean it truly is? My description is an anecdote. I can gussy it up with smiles and "best I ever tasted" to make the anecdote more persuasive. But it was still just one.

6/ That might make it worth testing another sample cherry, but if I pick the whole tree based on that one story, I might be really disappointed when none of the others are ripe. You have to observe enough instances to make sure, no matter how good the story was.

7/ Let's I walked over to the tree sucking on a lemon wedge and then picked and ate my cherry. My calibration for sweet and sour could be all wonky, and maybe my cherry tasted sweeter than it would have if I were eating a cupcake first.

8/ That's being particular about the circumstances - trying to do the observations in a way that what you observe isn't biased in some way. That also matters.

9/ If all 5 cousins, lemon wedge suckers, the lot of them, go out and try one cherry each on a tree that has hundreds and tell good stories about how cherries are sweeter than lemons, is that data? Or is it a collection of stories?

10/ I'm seeing a lot of confusion of anecdote with data related to decisions around the #COVID vaccine and how people might be persuaded for or against it. Anecdotes in favor might be

"I felt fine."
"My kid slept a lot the next day, but then was fine."

11/ Anecdotes against might be something like

"My friend felt awful for days and missed work"
"Person on Instagram video appeared to have a metal object stick to them"

12/ (Pause to say I KNOW one of those statements has basic biology and physics issues and that my whole family got vaccinated as soon as we could and were glad to. But I don't find mockery helpful in changing people's minds"

13/ In an era of some truly frightening disinformation, the parts that are just lies are being wrapped in compelling stories - anecdotes - to help them spread. But I've seen that tortoise and the hare a bunch, too, and that doesn't make it true.

14/ The plural of anecdote is not data. #DetectingDeception

15/ When it comes to vaccine safety, data exists and IS used to make decisions, but that information can be hard to understand without training most people don't have.

16/ Rather than throwing additional anecdotes, it can be helpful to have a trusted expert like someone's own doctor explain.

"Why don't you ask your doctor?"
"Do you want to talk through what worries you, and I'll help you make a list of questions?"

Twitter pro-tip: Pre-coffee punctuation attempts can be disappointing.