"The entire concept behind “bashing forecasters” isn’t simply to suggest one forecast is more valuable than another, but rather, to point out the futility of using forecasts as a basis for making investment decisions."
ritholtz.com/2015/02/no-eve…
ritholtz.com/2015/02/no-eve…
Example: This was June 2020.
"The probability is 100% that the markets for 13 of the world’s largest GDP ranked countries, including the US, reached their post-crash highs from Friday June 5, 2020 to Monday June 8, 2020."
realinvestmentadvice.com/markowski-why-…
"The probability is 100% that the markets for 13 of the world’s largest GDP ranked countries, including the US, reached their post-crash highs from Friday June 5, 2020 to Monday June 8, 2020."
realinvestmentadvice.com/markowski-why-…
I don't want to bash any specific analyst or trader; there are always 100s of examples of this.
Look at financial publication in December + January - they are filled with predictions, the vast majority of which - mostly extrapolation or wild ass guesses - end up being wrong
Look at financial publication in December + January - they are filled with predictions, the vast majority of which - mostly extrapolation or wild ass guesses - end up being wrong
Forecasts for fun are harmless; where they become troublesome is when they are used as marketing and investors believe + act on them.
Remember: All forecasts are marketing
ritholtz.com/2015/01/foreca…
Remember: All forecasts are marketing
ritholtz.com/2015/01/foreca…
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