Mom (85) at assisted living in NY, where infection rates are way down + vaxx rates among nation's highest.

New email from Med Chief: fully vaccinated resident tested positive for Covid-19. Facility back on quarantine protocols.

Likely source: Unvaccinated adult family member.
Those who opposed lockdowns saying "stay home if you are scared of the virus, let us live our lives" are now actively putting others at risk by refusing to get vaccinated
COVID-19 is dropping where people are being vaccinated more heavily, rising where they are not.

BUT RISKS REMAIN

Seems like a big overlap between people who said private businesses don’t have to serve a gay couple a wedding cake but ignore rights of private businesses who want to protect their employees and reputations by requiring vaccines to come into the office.

wsj.com/articles/compa…
Do we need to keep reminding people 600,000 Americans have died because of Covid?

Think about how cynical one must be to have politicized this, about how little you have to care about people or the sanctity of life

Imagine: Some anti-vaxxer political wanker just got their 80-year old dad infected, put his life -- and all the rest of the residents -- at risk.

What a selfish prick.
Can you imagine we have a well-proven, effective, preventative measure, and we are still making unforced errors

"We don't know the long term side effects" of the vaccine

But we DO KNOW the current risk from Covid: It is very dangerous, deadly, and those who survive are at greater risk from long-haul symptoms, vascular and neurological diseases.

Do the risk vs reward analysis
More than 2.39 billion doses have been given in 178 countries around the world. In the USA, 311 million doses have been given.

How much more proof do you need this is safe & effective relative to the risks of contracting Covid?

bloomberg.com/graphics/covid…
What is more dangerous than Legislators who double as antivaxxers?

There are Mothers against Drunk Drivers -- where are the moms against anti-vaxxers?

Too many are on Facebook being recruited by Q-Anon.

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More from @ritholtz

16 Jun
"The entire concept behind “bashing forecasters” isn’t simply to suggest one forecast is more valuable than another, but rather, to point out the futility of using forecasts as a basis for making investment decisions."

ritholtz.com/2015/02/no-eve…
Example: This was June 2020.

"The probability is 100% that the markets for 13 of the world’s largest GDP ranked countries, including the US, reached their post-crash highs from Friday June 5, 2020 to Monday June 8, 2020."

realinvestmentadvice.com/markowski-why-…
I don't want to bash any specific analyst or trader; there are always 100s of examples of this.

Look at financial publication in December + January - they are filled with predictions, the vast majority of which - mostly extrapolation or wild ass guesses - end up being wrong
Read 4 tweets
14 Jun
In the short run, the market is a narrative machine, but in the long run, it is a narrative-debunking machine.
What else is a crash if not a price-based debunking of the prior narrative?
My observation is (obviously) based on Benjamin Graham's famous line:

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
Read 12 tweets
12 Jun
Study:

• 1992-2006, >75% of all day-traders quit w/i 2 years
• Negative Aggregate performance of all traders over 15-years.
• Only 1 out of 100 day traders earned profits over time

Are ya feeling lucky?
bit.ly/3gquFDX Image
What's so pernicious from a trader's perspective is: YOU CAN MAKE MONEY DAY-TRADING!!! but the odds are you will give it back plus most of your starting capital. Greed only sees the all-caps teaser while ignoring the lower-case reality.
See this US example:

Individual investors pay a tremendous performance penalty for active trading. From 1991 to 1996, of 66,465 household with discount brokerage trading accounts, those trading the most earned 11.4%/year vs 17.9% for the market's returns

faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers%2…
Read 13 tweets
28 May
I love this chart

moretothat.com/speculation/
Note: This is the basis of Regret Minimization framework we have discussed from time to time...

ritholtz.com/2020/12/year-e…
This is the bane of existence of most stock pickers: They might be good buyers but they tend to sell either too early or too late.

ritholtz.com/2019/01/fund-m…
Read 4 tweets
24 May
Merrill Lynch is no longer training new brokers to Cold Call. This is long overdue . . .

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
1/
Little known fact:

Cold calling was extensively refined by a Managing Director of the investment banking firm Shearson Lehman Hutton (the predecessor to Lehman Brothers.

His name was Martin Shafiroff

ritholtz.com/2008/09/latest…

2/
Shafiroff refined various phone-selling techniques (straight line, the first trade, the trust close). These were published for the 1st time in “Successful Telephone Selling in the ’80s” and subsequent editions (’90s, etc.)

He opened Pandora's Box

amazon.com/exec/obidos/AS…
3/
Read 6 tweets
13 May
LONG OVERDUE: McDonalds is raising wages 10% to find & retain new hires. Low end wages have lagged for decades.

ritholtz.com/2021/05/findin…
Recall $MCD was a giant Welfare Queen whose McResource line helped employees enroll in various state/local assistance programs.

Backlash began when a recording was released with them advocating full-time employees sign up for food stamps + welfare.

ritholtz.com/2013/11/americ…
My solution to getting $MCD + $WMT + others off the public dole was to raise minimum wages. That raised howls from the usual suspects.

5 years ago, we began a real world experiment that would once +for all tell us if min wage increases were job killers

ritholtz.com/2016/03/157921/
Read 17 tweets

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