I love this chart

moretothat.com/speculation/
Note: This is the basis of Regret Minimization framework we have discussed from time to time...

ritholtz.com/2020/12/year-e…
This is the bane of existence of most stock pickers: They might be good buyers but they tend to sell either too early or too late.

ritholtz.com/2019/01/fund-m…
There are endless academic studies demonstrating this.
It helps to explain the alpha that comes from Fama-French factor models or various forms of screening -- they remove the emotional selling decision from the fund manager

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More from @ritholtz

24 May
Merrill Lynch is no longer training new brokers to Cold Call. This is long overdue . . .

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
1/
Little known fact:

Cold calling was extensively refined by a Managing Director of the investment banking firm Shearson Lehman Hutton (the predecessor to Lehman Brothers.

His name was Martin Shafiroff

ritholtz.com/2008/09/latest…

2/
Shafiroff refined various phone-selling techniques (straight line, the first trade, the trust close). These were published for the 1st time in “Successful Telephone Selling in the ’80s” and subsequent editions (’90s, etc.)

He opened Pandora's Box

amazon.com/exec/obidos/AS…
3/
Read 6 tweets
13 May
LONG OVERDUE: McDonalds is raising wages 10% to find & retain new hires. Low end wages have lagged for decades.

ritholtz.com/2021/05/findin…
Recall $MCD was a giant Welfare Queen whose McResource line helped employees enroll in various state/local assistance programs.

Backlash began when a recording was released with them advocating full-time employees sign up for food stamps + welfare.

ritholtz.com/2013/11/americ…
My solution to getting $MCD + $WMT + others off the public dole was to raise minimum wages. That raised howls from the usual suspects.

5 years ago, we began a real world experiment that would once +for all tell us if min wage increases were job killers

ritholtz.com/2016/03/157921/
Read 17 tweets
12 May
Bull markets don't die of old age; they are murdered by errors. What kills them are the policy mistakes made by Central Bankers, elected officials + Politicians of all kinds.

One person's "taking away the punchbowl" is another person's murder weapon...
And a 30% pullback in individual names after a 50-100% run up feels like normal volatility to me...
.@michaelbatnick has this just right:

"Second-level thinking is back. With the benefit of hindsight, investors should have been paying attention to the expectations that were baked into some of these stocks."

theirrelevantinvestor.com/2021/05/11/liv…
Read 4 tweets
7 May
NFP:

-Strengthens Biden stimulus proposals
-Embarrasses those yelling about inflation
-Big increase in wages = more hiring
-"All models are wrong, but some are useful"
-BLS models are especially noisy
-NFP = overrated economic indicator
-"Nobody know anything"
I would add that assembling this data during lockdown/pandemic is exceedingly difficult. Lots of variables errors introduced into April.

May/June/July reports now hold potential for huge upside surprise
More details for those who want to dig in

ritholtz.com/2021/05/about-…
Read 6 tweets
29 Apr
Today in depreciation (not):

Buy a 2012 Audi R8 Convertible w/a proper 6 speed manual shifter + the big(ger) V10 engine. Then put only 3800 miles on it.

You paid $176,400 MSRP - one of 423 cars spec'd this way - today gets you $203k, a gain of 15.1%.

bringatrailer.com/listing/2012-a…
Run that $176,400 an inflation calculator since 2012 and its $203,508 in 2021 dollars.

Therefore this car sold for its MSRP on an inflation adjusted basis nine years after its original sale.
I keep wondering how much of these prices are being driven by supply constraints related to semiconductor chip shortages for new automobiles.

wsj.com/articles/globa…
Read 4 tweets
16 Apr
Sorry to tell David Einhorn this, but absurd valuations for silly penny stock companies have been around for years.

To wit, the $100 million Grilled Cheese Food Truck circa 2015. @mattmiller1973 @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
If you took that as your sell signal, you left some money on the table: Markets have more than doubled since then.

ritholtz.com/2015/02/would-…
The key point here: There are always examples of silly valuations, especially among penny stocks, a hotbed of fraud, self-dealing, manipulation and nonsense.

My 2015 grilled cheese truck lesson? Be wary of drawing broad market conclusions from illiquid microcap scamcos
Read 9 tweets

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