Ankit Madhwani Profile picture
Jun 16, 2021 18 tweets 10 min read Read on X
1/n
Thread on Intermarket Relationship 1999-2021

Historical Correlation between #US30 #DowJones, #US100 #Nasdaq, #Gold #XAUUSD, #Brent #Crude, #copper #US10Y

1. US 30 / US 100 vs US 10Y

US30 / US100 was at ~2 multiple in 2000 and it is now at same level in 2021
2/n

Above chart shows that sole factor responsible for this anomaly is US 10Y rates
Rates were kept for real economy to recover, generation of jobs etc. however it has clearly backfired.
US Tech definitely does not deserve this kind of valuation
3/n

The multiple of 2 in 2000 went to 9 in 2001 represents the US tech bubble burst.
In todays terms if 2 were to go to 9, Dow would be at 25000 and Nasdaq ~2700 or any such other level. It may not hit 9 since tech has much larger role to play today vs 2000,
4/n

however multiple of 5-6 is certainly a possibility
No wonder US 100 pukes the moment rates move higher

2. US 100 vs US 10Y

US 10Y has been continuously going down since 1999 and consequent bubble kept brewing in US 100
5/n

Us Tech rally from 7000 to 14000 has happened only in last 24 months when rates fell from 3% to 0.6%

Will rates coming up gradually, will they be the Pin lying the bubble of US 100 ?

3. US 30 vs Oil (Danger here)

Looks very Ominous on the Oil front for 2021-23 period
6/n

which seems to be high growth for world on a recovery

Oil went below the US 30 curve in 2014-15 due to US energy booming and becoming net exporter by 2018. Rise in 2018-19 was due to IRAN sanctions.

With Biden admn, new leases for oil stopped, climate is focus, EV, etc.
7/n

IRAN deal uncertain
High growth + inflation underway

This charts shows both lines have to interact back at some level, $ 80, $ 100, $120 ?

If Crude does not rise from hereon, will US 100 take a plunge ?
8/n

4. DXY vs Oil

Oil crossing DXY line brings a dreadful rally in Oil

Oil now at $ 74 and DXY ~90. Both are very close to intersection

Oil rally signs are flashing on various fronts, Ominous

DXY weakening is here to stay as FED is committed to pump until full recovery
9/n
Oil cld break out big time like 2004-05 type

5. US 30 vs Copper

Copper outperformed index 2002 to 2017 being a king metal in real economy

IN historicl perspective, current rally still looks normal, it could well outperform index & hit higher levels $6, $7 or US 30 tank?
10/n
High growth + inflation underway alongside stimulus based recovery, Dr Copper has long way to go

6. Oil vs Copper

Oil always outperformed Copper 2002-2015
From 2014-2021, Oil underperformed.
Both have to intersect or even Oil may outperform.
11/n

Ominous like Dow vs Oil chart. Will Copper head lower to 3.5 and Oil at 80-100 $ or Will Oil hit 120$
High growth + inflation underway alongside stimulus based recovery, Copper and Crude are FORD and FERRARI of World real economy
12/n

7. Dow Gold Ratio vs Nasdaq Gold Ratio (My Fav)

Intersected in 2000 at 40 multipl. In 2021, they are again at intersection at 8 multiple.

Gold hit high of 1920 in 2011 with low multiple of 10 levels. We are at 20 on Dow Gold. Akin in for Nasdaq

chart bullish for Gold.
13/n

8. DXY vs Gold (My Fav)

DXY remains key factor for gold rallies

In other words, DXY falls post stimulus significantly leading to biggest gold rallies

If history repeats itself, huge rally in Gold is ahead of us since DXY is not going anywhere for now
14/n

huge stimulus has been unleashed by global central banks

Gold moves with a lag to the DXY move is evident from past

On Gold, we are currently on the lag move
15/n

9. GOLD vs Copper

Copper outperforms Gold in bull markets / Strong economic growth period

Both come in sync routinely

Currently Copper is ahead and gold needs a catch up

Chart says copper will further outperform gold and both look set for much higher levels
DXY weakening is here to stay as FED is committed to pump until full recovery is done.
16/n

Full Deck gif attached here. Happy to share pdf on DM.

End. Thank you for reading. views welcome.

@DEVENDRACHATUR1 @RakeshPujara1 @mosesharding @Macro_Maniac_ @sunchartist @vinitrahtod @aditya_srimal @meandmarkets @VaradMarkets @Blissful_Man @riteshmjn @charliebilello

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More from @AnkitMadX

Mar 11, 2023
Food for thought:
1. SVB will be taken care. It's a 20-30 Bn loss Bill at best..

2. Bigger questions to figure:

2a. How will US govt fund 4-5% interest rate on $31T debt ?

2b. Who has absorbed/un/accounted MTM loss on $31T debt in last 9 months? How many r swimming naked?
2c. FED Res equity will turn negative due to losses on its bond portfolio. Powell said FED can pay bills with negative equity/have negative income.. (aisi deewangi dekhi nahi moment 🤣)

3. Can FED have negative equity, it's a Central Bank of $ world's reserve currency
4. $ depreciation much faster than Inflation is the only way out to fund massive deficits.. Rest of the World will need big incentive in form of high rates and weaker dollar to Buy and hold US assets again

5. 1971 - $ debasement was treachery
2001 was d first big lesson wasted
Read 7 tweets
Jun 15, 2021
#USDINR
Thread..

Pros:
1. Multifold Inflows ~= Outflows (of Tr Def & CA def).
2. RBI appetite for reserves reducing
3. Weak DXY
4. Hand of God levels (73-74)

Cons:
1. Crude 73+
2. Inflation > 6% yet MPC stance accommodative
3. GDP growth 🤞 (8-9% over 2020 which is ~ to 2019)
4. Tr def, CA def.
5. Fiscal deficit
6. Rising commodity prices headwind for govt spending

Thoughts:
1. Reserves of over $150 Bn added within 24m
2. Avg cost 72-73
3. Appreciation contained, however one off one time Depn is tolerated
4. inflation counter by keeping ₹ stable?
5. Are we forming base at 73 for the next band at 75-78 from current band of 73-75 levels if,
Crude > 73
DXY > 92 (taper)
Inflation > 6 (with accom)
Growth < 9%
Fisc > 8%

6. Conversely, 73 is difficult to hold if,

FED shrugs taper
Inflation is transitory
Fisc ~ 7-8
Read 5 tweets
Oct 10, 2020
Thread on #Scam1992 web series on #HarshadMehta (HM) based on book by Sucheta Dalal.
23 April 1992

HM had repaid 500 crs to SBI. The article ruined it.
It was a crime to use bank funds for buying stocks definately and money was taken frm NHB to pay SBI.

Want 2ask this openly:
1) Isn't the same thing happening today formally?
2) Public money through MF / LIC / PF / ETF is going into hyper inflated overvalued equity markets ?

2) offcourse it is now official and as per rules. Mutual funds sahi hai #₹$€
3)Did somebody evaluate the amount of loss to the system ?

4) did someone think of covering it and closing the stock holdings before Market crashed?

5) Who wld investigate the illegal invoked beneficiaries.. Citibank, RJ, RKD, Kedia etc. etc.
Read 8 tweets
Aug 8, 2020
@DEVENDRACHATUR1 @iKawachii @dhavalgandhi007 Absolutely agree sir. at this juncture its important to pen down critical points due to which our country is in economic mess in 2020 also. Who is responsible for them, people are smart enough to judge.

1) Population explosion for Popular Vote from states / castes, etc.
1/n
@DEVENDRACHATUR1 @iKawachii @dhavalgandhi007 2/n

2) Unchecked immigrants from Bangladesh, Nepal, Assam, other M countries.

3) Increase in % share of Non-Hindu Population

4) Definition of Securalism altered!

5) No Education No Literacy focus. Unproductive population.

6) Nepotism
@DEVENDRACHATUR1 @iKawachii @dhavalgandhi007 3/n

7) 2004-14 saw over 1 Trillion$ of capital machinery Import (all inflated). Literally no $ reserves added against our exports. Money went overseas. Rupee crushed. Purchasing power of India killed.

8) Crony Capitalism. Banks Bankrupted.

9) Equity Mrkts rigged. Colocation!
Read 5 tweets
Aug 4, 2020
#GOLD Thread 1/8
Data of 958 weekly close from Apr 2002 to Aug 2020 analysed. (18 years, 958 Wks)
Of 958 Wk, only 44 Weeks have given + / - 5% move in #GOLD
Plotted Dow Jones move 4 same week as +/- 5% move in #GOLD

Data as below.

@DEVENDRACHATUR1
2/8
Observations:
1)Out of 43 times, 11 times in 2008, 5-6 times in 2007 /09/13

2)#EPIC2020, happened 4 times already, this week potential ? 2025 ?

3)Dow and Gold hv been same direction of move for 23 times & opposite direction 20 times of the 43 outcomes. NO trend.
3/8
4)Years of +/- 5% moves - All Crises Years
Overall view based on below stats/ facts:
Year 1980 high of GOLD $ 800 (1979 to 1980 was 100% gain from $ 400 to $ 800)
(FED BS / US GDP was ~10% of 1980 to 2008)
2008 high was $ 800 (back after 28 years)
2011 high was $ 1930
Read 12 tweets

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