Thread by @PME_Politics

Alrighty, Chesham and Amersham!

Lib Dem gain, swing of 25pts.

This thread will be specifically about the by-election. I’ll do a separate one on the ‘Blue Wall’ idea and what C&A tells us about the Gold shift hypothesis later.

First up, should we have seen this coming?

Yes.

Things always, always look easier and clearer in hindsight, so I’m not going to do any daft “I told you so” takes.

But if you’ll indulge me, cast your mind back to May, then to Dec 2019.

Places like C&A have been trending away from the Conservatives for a number of years now.

In the May 2021 locals, the Lib Dems (and Labour, Greens) cannoned through council after council in the South East + East of England, hoovering up Tory
seats. See results in places like Surrey, Bucks, and specifically C&A as @markpack pointed out: markpack.org.uk/167476/lib-dem…

The sizeable blue-gold/red/green shifts in LE results was a major warning sign that this sort of result - a Lib Dem gain of a safe Tory seat - could happen.

Albeit, as @robfordmancs pointed out yesterday, the swing required was right at the upper end of what LDs achieved in May.

In #GE2019, we saw a swathes of Lib Dem second places in exactly the same sort of places. Here’s a lovely map by @geoviews of second placed party after the results came in. Look at those Gold foundations right across that southern Blue Wall.

Back to 2021. A lot of commentary around C&A by-election dismissed Lib Dem chances there because the seat was ‘blue as blue’, ‘safe as houses’ for the Conservatives.

Apparently, it was thought that the ‘Lib Dems will take a bite out of the majority, but nothing to worry about’.

If the post-Brexit realignment of British voting behaviour has taught us anything, it’s that no majority is safe.

No amount of voter tradition or history will protect a party from losing a seat.

No ‘that just won’t happen there’ takes are acceptable any more.

Now that's not *all* the commentary we heard. @paulwaugh for instance told us about nerves in CCHQ about the Lib Dem challenge.

But you didn’t have to trawl too deep into feeds and replies to get a sense of how buzzing Lib Dem activists have been about C&A for around a week now.

Aerial commentary, seemingly mostly based on the 2019 result.... was completely out of kilter with what we could hear ‘on the ground’.

Of course, must caveat all ‘great day on the doorstep!’ tweets with lots of caution, but the indications were that it was *at least* v. close.

Lastly, while British politics is all about change and ripping up playbooks right now, some old truths clearly still have a little life in them yet:

1. It's rare for Gov. to do well in by-elections.
2. By-elections often become dominated by local issues, and campaigns matter.

3. Lib Dems are extremely good at by-elections.

IMO, takes on what happened last night don't need to go too much deeper than that.

Frustration with the government (part of longer term, Brexit-related shifts), local issues (such as planning), and the Lib Dem by-election machine.

If you did want to look beyond that, there seems to be evidence of tactical voting between Labour and Lib Dems. But without individual level data, we can't really be certain about that (definitely not the extent of it, at least).