The Blue Wall.
What is it, and why should we care?
Well, by my reckoning, the 53-seat strong Blue Wall is a line of Conservatives-held constituencies in the South of England, stretching from Lewes to Stroud.
Plus a few 'islands' dotted across the South and East of England.
What is it, and why should we care?
Well, by my reckoning, the 53-seat strong Blue Wall is a line of Conservatives-held constituencies in the South of England, stretching from Lewes to Stroud.
Plus a few 'islands' dotted across the South and East of England.
The definition I am working with is heavily based on work in Brexitland done by @ProfSobolewska and @robfordmancs:
- Voted to Remain in 2016 (according to @chrishanretty estimates)
- Have a higher than average (25%+) proportion of graduates
- Are in the South or East of England
- Voted to Remain in 2016 (according to @chrishanretty estimates)
- Have a higher than average (25%+) proportion of graduates
- Are in the South or East of England
The Blue Wall is the flipside of the Red Wall coin.
Just as many North/Midlands seats which have traditionally voted Labour are now moving to the Conservatives as the great Brexit realignment rumbles on, many seats are slowly moving away from the Tories in the South and East.
Just as many North/Midlands seats which have traditionally voted Labour are now moving to the Conservatives as the great Brexit realignment rumbles on, many seats are slowly moving away from the Tories in the South and East.
Why are they moving away?
Well, demographically-speaking, Remain-voting University graduates are one of the least likely tribes to be voting Conservative.
And there are more and more of them stacking up in traditional 'blue as blue' seats.
A Commuterville story, if you like.
Well, demographically-speaking, Remain-voting University graduates are one of the least likely tribes to be voting Conservative.
And there are more and more of them stacking up in traditional 'blue as blue' seats.
A Commuterville story, if you like.
A crucial components to Blue Wall is that its foundations have shades.
Based on previous election results, there are 20 Blue Wall constituencies where Labour would seem to be best placed to capitalise on Tory disaffection.
In 33 seats, the Lib Dems are the obvious challengers.
Based on previous election results, there are 20 Blue Wall constituencies where Labour would seem to be best placed to capitalise on Tory disaffection.
In 33 seats, the Lib Dems are the obvious challengers.
This Blue Wall definition would have included 54 seats up until Thursday, when the Lib Dems took out a significant brick in Chesham & Amersham.
As part of YouGov analysis for The Times, I found 23 *easier* constituencies for the Lib Dems to win than C&A: thetimes.co.uk/article/lib-de…
As part of YouGov analysis for The Times, I found 23 *easier* constituencies for the Lib Dems to win than C&A: thetimes.co.uk/article/lib-de…
Chesham & Amersham falling with a 25-point swing tells us something v. important about what is going in the Blue Wall.
It matches medium-term trends back to 2017, 2019, and the 2021 local election results.
Conservatives are losing ground fast in their Remain-leaning heartlands.
It matches medium-term trends back to 2017, 2019, and the 2021 local election results.
Conservatives are losing ground fast in their Remain-leaning heartlands.
I've been asked if I can provide a list of these constituencies for people to check out.
So here's a file listing the seats which fit this definition, and includes some background info: #GE2019 result, estimated Leave share, % degree holders, and more!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
So here's a file listing the seats which fit this definition, and includes some background info: #GE2019 result, estimated Leave share, % degree holders, and more!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
If you’d like some more reading about the Lib Dems in particular and where their future target seats ought to be (both around and beyond the Blue Wall), I’d highly recommend this from @ProfTimBale, @DrAlanWager and @Aron_Cheung on the ‘Yellow Halo’: ukandeu.ac.uk/partner-report…
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