Covid sitrep: Was not planning on doing another one but things are definitely changing on the ground in some NHS hospitals. Vaccination has been a huge help but we are seeing more patients admitted to hospital and to ICU. Frustrating but there are reasons to be hopeful 1/11:
First thing to explain is that although there has definitely been an increase in new admissions to hospital, the numbers are very small. We are reassured by @DHSCgovuk reports that vaccination is reducing the number of severe cases of Covid 2/11.
The flow of patients with covid needing intensive care had almost stopped for a few weeks but is rising again. ICU staff are seeing a change. Again, the numbers are very small but we also know they start small. 3/11
On the plus side, we understand the COVID-19 really well now: We made new treatment plans which worked well in the second wave. For example, we know we see problems like blood clots and kidney damage more often than usual for ICU patients. 4/11
Our treatments are more focused. We aren't getting distracted by a media furore about wonder drugs. @NIHRresearch delivered major clinical trials which busted many myths eg hydroxychloroquine and showed some simple things which saved lives eg dexamethasone. 5/11
Escalation plans: The vast Covid escalation plans before the first wave were revised and tested in the second wave, and refined again with learning from the second wave. We know how to use our staff and real estate to the optimum making patient care more efficient. 6/11
Normal care wont stop: In the first wave, treatment of other diseases stalled almost completely, and again briefly in the second. We are determined to avoid this, and keep GP and hospital care going safely - patients should not worry about visiting hospitals if they need to. 7/11
Logistics are in place: supply chains were under huge strain in March '20. We came very close to running out of PPE, ventilators, dialysis equipment, clothing ('scrubs') and lots more. The supply chain is now resilient. We are well stocked with drugs, equipment and supplies. 8/11
Calm routine: In the first wave our planning was very excitable and sometimes it showed. We wasted time managing people with ill-conceived ideas which weren't going to work. This time we know exactly what to do. Staff are well drilled. Training is routine. 9/11
There are also some reasons to be worried. Some NHS staff have been burnt out by the past 18 months. We are inspired by the massive community response to the crisis but push back from deniers and people putting personal freedoms ahead of others' lives remains hard to take. 10/11
The NHS is here, ready and waiting. We are proud to look after you but we really need to avoid these huge waves of Covid admissions. Vaccination and public health rules can stop this. Keep up your amazing work and #staysafe. The routine is a grind but it works. Thank you. 11/11
Here is how the covid cases are spread across the UK for those who want to see this....
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COVID sitrep: The situation in NHS hospitals continues to improve as new infections reach the lowest level since mid-September. Lots of green on the map now. Many patients now well enough to be cared for at home. Still lots going on though. 1/9
We now have fewer than 10,000 COVID patients in NHS hospitals, and the lowest number since 24th October. A great milestone but still a vast number for a single infectious disease. The NHS is a long way from business as usual. 2/9
National patterns can often hide regional variations but it’s great to see both hospital admissions and deaths from COVID now falling in every region of England. 3/9
A family member asked me to explain why I wasn’t convinced by a clinical trial of ivermectin. Yet again (apologies) it’s complicated. But here’s ten things for the non-expert can look for to help them understand how much a clinical trial should influence patient care.
1. Beware the tabloid headline: We all want a nice simple message but science just isn’t like that. Clinical trials need careful nuanced interpretation. But media, politicians, and often researchers themselves, want a snappy success story. These are generally misleading.
2. Evidence before eminence: your first impressions should be made by the trial and the data, NOT the researcher(s), however brilliant they may be. In particular, if the reputation of one individual is used strongly in support of the trial findings, then be careful.
Sitrep: Yesterday marked a year since the first COVID-19 patient was admitted to @teamaccu@royallondonhosp. A year like no other. East London was badly hit by both the first and second waves. Many stories to tell. Here’s mine (long thread but easy read!). 1/22
The four hospitals in @NHSBartsHealth has treated more than 8000 patients with COVID-19. This was beyond our wildest imagination a year ago. Even the worst winter ‘flu epidemic was tiny by comparison. The entire organisation forced to configure around a single disease. 2/22
Our expanded @teamaccu has admitted 648 COVID patients in 12 months to an ICU which expanded three and a half times our original size to 150 beds. For ICU staff this is just mind boggling. An incredible logistical effort from staff of all grades from across @NHSBartsHealth. 3/22
Let's gloss over the use of percentages without explanation of what they mean, and the failure to quote a data source, and look at some facts....
Firstly, many NHS staff are not clinically trained eg porters, cleaners, managers, admin staff, etc. They don't have any more reason to understand vaccination than any other members of the public.
More positive news as new coronavirus infections subside in the UK. The NHS is looking to recovery from the impacts of COVID and planning the re-boot of usual healthcare which has suffered badly in the past 12 months. We have a huge backlog to clear. 1/10 bbc.co.uk/news/uk-562007…
Before we think about the recovery, the usual points need to be made – we still have more than 15,000 hospital in-patients with COVID…. 2/10
….and we still have more than 2000 COVID patients in ventilated intensive care beds (almost half the usual footprint of ICU in the whole of the UK). So still many months to go before the second wave is over for NHS staff. 3/10
Clinical trials are in the public eye once again, and Vitamin D for COVID is especially topical right now. Like everything in healthcare, the trials are complex, so here’s an explainer on them. These points are most important for doctors but relevant to us all. 1/15
One particular trial provoked debate this week. Enthusiasts insist it proves the role of Vitamin D in treating COVID but experts highlight numerous problems with how the research was done. These limitations mean the research should not, on its own, change patient care… 2/15
…because we need to understand the strengths and weaknesses of a trial to safely use the results to shape patient care. When non-experts get involved we have problems. Some doctors make these mistakes too I’m afraid. 3/15