Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* Cases up 28% over 1wk to 50/day (5.3 per 100k), infection rate over 1.0, as the Delta variant spreads
* Positivity steady at 3.6%+
* Only 1 death, the lowest since March 2020
* Vaccinations up from last wk, even w/prior 2wks

1/

Here's the infection rate, which has risen from 0.76 at the end of May to 0.98 as of a week ago and are likely up to 1.09 now.

Remember, spread takes off once it passes the 1.0 bar. And we've seen big spikes each time 1.1 is surpassed. So this is definitely concerning.

2/

Cases are up to 50/day, up 28% from last week and 11% from the week before.

3/

The case rate is 5.3 per 100k, so it's still low, but that's a pretty sharp increase from the 4.2 per 100k last week.

4/

The case rate for non-vaccinated people, though, has spiked from 6.9 to 9.0 per 100k, a 30% increase.

5/

The positivity rate dropped from 3.6% a week ago down to 2.9% on Tuesday, then spiked up to 4.0% yesterday, before ending back at 3.6% today.

6/

What I worry about, though, is who's getting tested. My guess is that only those whose employers make them get tested are being tested. And my guess is that this group is weighted heavily toward the medical community, which has a higher vax rate.

7/

The point being that my guess is that we're missing a lot of cases.

Now, a good indication would be hospitalization data, but that's not been updated in over a week, so it's hard to say.

8/

We do, however, know that deaths remain low.

About a month after Easter, we saw deaths spike. But we've now been under 5/wk for 3wks, the lowest 3wks on record, including a record-low 1 death this week.

This is largely due to a high senior adult vax rate.

9/

Now, with vaccinations, the data reporting has been a little sketchy.

There was a huge vax data dump on Jun5 (Sat), then no vax data Jun6-7. No data were reported again on Jun12 (Sat). And then there was another data dump Jun16.

10/

I mention that bc it looks like vaccinations spiked this week, when the data suggest that last week's data were questionable.

As you can see, this week is in line with the previous 2wks.

11/

According to our official data, we finally surpassed 50% immunity (40% vax'd + 11% infected).

But we know the official count of infection is artificially low bc of testing.

12/

In reality, around 32% of the population has probably been infected. Add the 40% vax'd, then subtract the overlap, and we're near 70% immunity.

13/

Now, 70% would have been great for the original strain of the virus. We'd have herd immunity, and the virus would be crushed.

So why are we seeing cases spike?

14/

Cases are spiking, despite high levels of community immunity, bc the variants - particularly the new Delta variant - are more infectious.

We'll probably need to reach at least 80% immunity to crush the spread of Delta. And that's not happening anytime soon.

So I'm worried.

15/

It's worth observing that the variants have consistently arisen in hotspots (e.g., UK, India).

The point here is that we aren't safe until and unless everywhere is safe. There's no wall to protect us from infectious disease.

And so we have to help others.

16/

This is why the effort to share vaccines with the rest of the world.

At 95 doses per 100k ppl, with 53% of the pop vax'd, the US ranks near the top of the world.

But globally, only 20% of ppl are vax'd.

17/

So, while we struggle to get Memphians - & Americans in general - vaccinated, we have a higher vax rate than most of the world.

And if we don't help them for their own sakes, we should help them for our sakes. If we don't, more variants will arise. And they will come here.

18/

Remember, our children are still not vaccinated. And the covid hospitalization rate in England, where the Delta variant is already widespread, has risen in recent weeks.

That said, the rate is still quite low.

nytimes.com/2021/06/18/bri…

19/

On the other hand, children now make up over 20% of cases in the US.

And 10x more young children have died from covid in Brazil, where the Gamma variant is dominant, than in the US.

nytimes.com/2021/06/04/opi…

20/

I'm going to end there.

But before I close, let me call attention to the fact that today is Juneteenth. And let me ask you to donate to two organizations.

First, I would ask that you match my $50 donation to @MLK50Memphis.

communitylift.networkforgood.com/projects/11232…

21/

And I would also ask that you match my $50 donation to @LifeLineSuccess.

lifeline2success.org/get-involved

Thanks in advance!

22/22