Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr: I'm Concerned
* Vax: 13k new ppl (-45%)
* Vax: 300k total (32% of pop)
* Case Rate: 15.0 per 100k (-19%)
* Positivity Rate: 6.5%+ (down from 6.5%)
* Hospitalizations: ~150 (up slightly)
* Deaths: 14 this wk (up slightly)

1/

Fortunately, cases fell this week, but we need cases to fall much more - and much more rapidly. As you can see, the curve is still bent upwards.

We've proven, multiple times, that we can flatten the curve. Let's do it again before things get out of control.

2/

Case Rate

The Goal: < 10 daily cases per 100,000 ppl
The Data: 15.0 per 100k & falling

It's a race of the vaccines vs the variants. It's been back-and-forth now for a few weeks, but fortunately the variants stumbled this week.

3/

The susceptible population is shrinking, as thousands of people are vaccinated each week.

And the case rate of non-vax'd people, while still very high, fell to 28.0 per 100k.

If you are not vax'd, please go get vax'd as soon as possible.

4/

Test Positivity Rate

Goal: < 5%
Data: 6.5%

Fortunately, we dropped from 7.3% last week. But this is still the highest positivity rate we've seen in 2 months.

We're not testing enough. We're missing cases, which means more spread.

5/

Cases Vs Tests

1wk, -19% vs -3%
2wks, +30% vs -2%
4wks, +35% vs -2%
6wks, +32% vs -12%

Cases fell this week, but at 141 new cases per day, we're at a level higher than anytime in the past 2 months.

And we're not testing enough, which means we can't trace + isolate.

6/

Covid Hospitalizations

As you can see, we're mostly holding steady here. We're up slightly, but the rise is so slight that you have to look hard to see it. This is likely bc cases are spreading in younger populations. But this is definitely something to keep an eye on.

7/

Covid Deaths

There were 14 reported this week, up from 11 last wk.

It's pretty incredible how dramatically deaths dropped once vaccinations started. This is likely due to high vax rates in elderly populations. But it's definitely a high point to celebrate.

Vaccines work!

8/

Vaccinations

Over 300k people have been vaccinated locally, with nearly 200k fully vax'd.

But only 32% of people are vaccinated, which is not even halfway to our 70% goal.

And the vax rate has slowed. A lot. This is a big problem.

9/

Only 13k new ppl were vaccinated this wk, down from 23k last wk, 32k the previous wk & 37k the wk before.

In fact, it's the lowest new vax levels on record, except for the snow wk.

This is a huge problem. The pandemic will never end unless we reverse this trend.

10/

We've heard a lot of talk about "herd immunity."

Estimates are that roughly 70% of the population needs immunity, either thru infection or vaccination, to essentially stop transmission.

We're at 32% vax'd & 10% infected (minus those who've been both).

Halfway there.

11/

However, @youyanggu estimates that local infections are 3x higher than reported (bc of lack of testing).

If so, then we're at 32% vax'd + 33% infected (minus those who've been both).

And if so, it means we're getting pretty close.

12/

I don't think anyone knows how many people were infected & then later were vax'd, so it's hard to say exactly where we stand.

But it's a problem that our vax rate is slowing down.

Mass vax sites were good when demand was high, but now we have to go out & create demand.

13/

Yesterday, @TennesseeStand did just that with a vaccination outreach canvassing event in Raleigh.

Today, ShotRx901 is canvassing Hickory Hill for a pop-up vax event at Limit Breaker Church.

They'll be doing the same in Hyde Park for an event at Promise Academy next wk.

14/

And then ShotRx901 will be canvassing Binghampton for a pop-up vax event at First Baptist (Poplar & E Pkwy) the following week.

There may be some anti-vaxxers out there, but most just need a personal connection. We have to go to them. We can't expect them to just show up.

15/

What we're seeing is that one-size-fits-all public health doesn't work.

Mass vax events are great, but as we've seen, that only works for about 1/3 of people.

The other 2/3 need something else. And the only way to figure that out is to go talk to them.

16/

I've been talking to my students and their families. Most don't even know that vaccines are available to anyone now.

None are anti-vax, but they are all just very hesitant. Even those who have lost loved ones to covid, those with health conditions, those staying home.

17/

In short, these are people who understand the threat covid poses very well...and yet they are still very hesitant to get vaccinated.

The only thing overcoming that hesitancy is talking to people they know & trust.

It's a relationship thing.

18/

Unfortunately, most of our leaders have not built relationships outside the Poplar Corridor.

(Shout-out to my reps, @tamisawyer & @MEasterThomas, who are exceptions here!)

And so the infrastructure for this doesn't exist. But let's build it now.

19/

That kind of infrastructure would create jobs, build trust, and establish networks of communication.

And, once built, this human infrastructure could be used in the future for any number of things, public health and beyond.

20/

Our vax rate has falling from over 5k newly vax'd per day to under 2k per day.

It should be obvious that our current strategy is no longer working. It worked...until it didn't.

But you never put all your eggs in one basket. So it's time to try some new strategies.

21/

It's easy to say that everyone has had an opportunity to be vaccinated, that those not yet vax'd just don't want to be vax'd, and that their choice means that we can move on w/o worrying about them.

But that's just not a fair assessment.

Not yet at least.

22/

Once we make some good-faith efforts to get out into communities and talk to people, if they still refuse, then you can say that they've made their choice.

But you can't say that now.

23/

Soon, hopefully, we can relax.

In the meantime, we know what to do...
Mask.
Distance.
Outdoors.

And spread the gospel of covid vaccination.

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