Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* Vax: < 9k new ppl (-73%, 4wks)
* Vax: 322k total (34% of pop)
* Case Rate: 14.0 per 100k (+20%, 4wks)
* Positivity Rate: 6.2%+ (4.9%, 4wks ago)
* Hospitalizations: ~210 (+50%, 4wks)
* Deaths: 9 this wk (15 or less, 9wks)

1/

Let's start with deaths. Bc deaths show how incredibly effective the vaccines are.

In the 9wks of Jan-Feb, we avg'd 68 covid deaths per wk.

In the 9wks since, in Mar-May, we've avg'd 12 per wk, with a high of 15.

This is huge. Vaccines work. Vaccines save lives.

2/

But we are really struggling to get ppl vax'd now. This wk was 19% lower than last wk, 33% lower than the wk before, and 73% lower than 4wks ago.

This was the 5th consecutive wk that new ppl vax'd was lower than the previous wk.

We have to find a way to reverse this trend.

4/

Only 8,663 new ppl were vax'd this wk.

For context, just 5wks ago, we avg'd 5,407 new ppl vax'd per day.

A month ago, we were vax'ing more ppl every 2 days than we are now in an entire wk.

This is a huge problem. In fact, I think I'd call it a public health crisis.

5/

Or, get this: We've vax'd 32,318 new ppl in the past 3wks combined.

The wk of Apr4, we vax'd 32,462 new ppl.
The wk of Mar28, we vax'd 37,851 new ppl.

In other words, we've vax'd fewer ppl in the past 3wks than we were doing in a single wk a month ago.

6/

Look! We've flattened the curve!

Unfortunately, though, it's the wrong curve. We've flattened the vaccination curve.

On Feb21, only 8% were vax'd.
By Feb28, 10%
Mar7, 13%
Mar14, 16%
Mar21, 18%
Mar28, 21%
Apr4, 25%
Apr11, 28%
Apr18, 31%
Apr25, 32%
May1, 33%
May8, 34%

7/

That said, @youyanggu estimates that local infections are 3x higher than reported (bc of lack of testing).

If so, then we're at 34% vax'd + 34% infected. That's 68% who have some immunity (minus those who've been both).

And this is helping to keep cases down somewhat.

8/

The case rate did drop this week, from 15.5 avg daily cases per 100,000 people to 14.0 this wk.

This is promising.

9/

The case rate even fell among non-vax'd ppl, but it's still at 19.2 per 100k, which is pretty high.

10/

The infection rate has fallen below 1, but at 0.97, just barely.

This explains why cases dropped this week, but we need this even lower to really see a difference.

11/

The positivity rate dropped slightly, from 6.7% last wk, to 6.2% this wk. But we need to get this back below 5%, which we know is possible bc we did it for 4wks back in March.

12/

This is what is really starting to concern me, though.

Covid hospitalizations are up from 140 to 210, a 50% increase, in the past 4wks.

And since most senior adults have been vax'd this represents a shift in *who* is being hospitalized. These are young people.

13/

Personally, I'm worried about my kids.

One will hopefully get vax'd soon, assuming they authorize for 12-15 yr olds as expected.

But my youngest is below that threshold. Still, we're having one friend (+ vax'd parents) over for her birthday next week. Indoors.

14/

We are also taking advantage of the weather to get outdoors.

We did a porch hangout with some friends on Thursday, then I had a work happy hour outside yesterday.

The CDC seems to have just figured this out, but we've known for a year that outdoors is like 20 times safer.

15/

I'm vaccinated, so I feel pretty confident about doing pretty much whatever I want. I'm still cautious about my kids, though.

But if we want to get back to some semblance of normality, we've got to get more ppl vax'd.

16/

My wife helped organize a vaccine event today targeting the Midtown and Binghampton communities.

She and our son are working it.

What can you do to help?

17/17