Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr: I'm Concerned
* Case Rate: 18.7 per 100k (+61%)
* Positivity Rate: 7.3%+ (up from 4.9%)
* Hospitalizations: ~145 (up slightly)
* Deaths: 11 this wk (flat)
* Vax: 23k new ppl (-28%)
* Vax: 290k total (31% of pop)

1/

The first thing to note is that we are, once again, un-bending the curve.

We've proven, over & over again, that we can flatten the curve. And then we've seen, over & over again, what happens when we loosen up too soon.

2/

Case Rate

The Goal: < 10 daily cases per 100,000 ppl
The Data: 18.7 per 100k & rising

Right now, the variants are winning the race against the vaccines.

3/

But the susceptible population is shrinking rapidly, as tens of thousands of people are vaccinated each week.

And the case rate of non-vax'd people is now up to 32.4 per 100k, nearly double what it was last wk.

If you are not vax'd, please go get vax'd as soon as possible.

4/

Test Positivity Rate

Goal: < 5%
Data: 7.3%

This is very concerning. After rising from 4.1% to 5.3%, it dropped to 4.9% last wk...and then spiked to 7.3% this wk, the highest rate in 2 months.

We're not testing enough. We're missing cases, which means more spread.

5/

Cases Vs Tests

1wk, +61% vs +2%
2wks, +58% vs +11%
4wks, +73% vs +1%
6wks, +51% vs -3%

Cases are spiking, y'all. We were avg'ing 99 cases/day last Fri, after being flat for about a month, but are up to 175 per day now.

And we're not testing enough, which means more spread.

6/

Covid Hospitalizations

As you can see, we're mostly holding steady here. We're up slightly, but the rise is so slight that you have to look hard to see it. This is likely bc cases are spreading in younger populations. But this is definitely something to keep an eye on.

7/

Covid Deaths

There were 11 reported this week, same as last week.

It's pretty incredible how dramatically deaths dropped once vaccinations started. This is likely due to high vax rates in elderly populations. But it's definitely a high point to celebrate.

Vaccines work!

8/

Vaccinations

Nearly 290k people have been vaccinated locally, with over 170k fully vax'd.

This is exciting, but for context only 31% of people are vaccinated. That's not even halfway to our 70% goal.

So, while we're making good progress, we've still got quite a ways to go.

9/

Over 23k new ppl were vaccinated this wk, down 9k from last wk, & down 14k from the previous wk. In fact, it's the lowest new vax levels since the wk of Feb21.

This is a problem.

Meanwhile, 27k new ppl became fully vax'd, the 1st time this number has exceeded newly vax'd.

10/

We've heard a lot of talk about "herd immunity."

Estimates are that roughly 70% of the population needs immunity, either thru infection or vaccination, to essentially stop transmission.

We're at 31% vax'd & 10% infected (minus those who've been both).

About halfway there.

11/

However, @youyanggu estimates that local infections are 3x higher than reported (bc of lack of testing).

If so, then we're at 31% vax'd + 33% infected (minus those who've been both).

That's over half the population, which means we're getting close.

12/

I'm not sure - I don't think anyone knows - how many people were infected and then later were vax'd, so it's hard to say exactly where we stand.

But it's a problem that our vax rate is slowing down. Like, a big problem.

Mass vax sites are good, but won't solve the problem.

13/

We're going to need to get out into the community and canvass door-to-door.

And you can help: @StandMemphis is doing a Get Out The Vaccine canvass on Friday!

facebook.com/events/2922985…

14/

But we're also going to have to do smaller, more targeted vax events.

ShotRx has one Apr24 at Limit Breaker Church & another May1 at @PACSMemphis.

Our church @fbcmemphis is hosting a ShotRx event on May 8. (Shout-out to my wife, the minister, for making that happen.)

15/

Our vax rate has fallen from 5,400 newly vax'd per day to 4,600 per day to 3,300 per day.

And this means it will take longer to get back to normal.

We were on pace to reach the herd immunity threshold sometime between May & June. Now it's looking like June or July.

16/

A full 25% of the local pop is under 18, though. So any chance at reaching herd immunity will involve vax'ing kids & youth.

Ages 16+ can already get the vaccine, and I would encourage parents & teens to go get it.

And 12+ is coming soon. My son can't wait for his.

17/

Imagine how awesome this summer can and will be, if only we can get enough ppl vax'd.

Now let's go make it happen.

18/

In the meantime, we know what to do...
Mask.
Distance.
Outdoors.

And spread the gospel of covid vaccination.

This isn't hard. We just have to want it.

19/19