Updating as a new vaccination data thread for June Week 3.
1. Mon to Sat saw >3m doses everyday.
2. Mon and Sat each had >4 million.
3. The past 11 days have seen >3m/day trailing 7DMA - almost matching 12 consecutive days in April. Current 7DMA is 3.34m/day.
1/
1. Mon to Sat saw >3m doses everyday.
2. Mon and Sat each had >4 million.
3. The past 11 days have seen >3m/day trailing 7DMA - almost matching 12 consecutive days in April. Current 7DMA is 3.34m/day.
1/
https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1403772770131922946
With consistently rising consumption, the extrapolation of production based on weekly consumption has also risen to 117m/month rate now.
This is close to the higher end forecast of 120m/mo rate projected for June, with one more week to go, and almost 2x early May rate.
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This is close to the higher end forecast of 120m/mo rate projected for June, with one more week to go, and almost 2x early May rate.
2/
Nit: earlier image should say Wk 3 for last bar.
The rate of increase from Wk2 wasn’t as high as prior weeks, but a month long acceleration is clear - already twice as long as the April surge in vaccinations, with supplies still increasing.
3/
The rate of increase from Wk2 wasn’t as high as prior weeks, but a month long acceleration is clear - already twice as long as the April surge in vaccinations, with supplies still increasing.
3/
For the past month the continued acceleration in production has aligned with govt production forward estimates.
This give confidence that the estimates for July will also bear out - consumption rate this week was production rate from a few weeks ago.
4/
This give confidence that the estimates for July will also bear out - consumption rate this week was production rate from a few weeks ago.
4/
With 276 million doses done and 10 days left, >300m by end of June seems a reliable projection now - little over a week at current rate.
Accelerating 7DMA data showing Indian vaccination rate vs major continents, and the west:
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Accelerating 7DMA data showing Indian vaccination rate vs major continents, and the west:
5/
Keeping in mind current doses data is production from weeks ago, Indian production rate is on the cusp of overtaking EU.
June 4th week should see continued linear growth. July may be significantly higher based on production ramp up claims. An interesting 1-2 months ahead.
6/6
June 4th week should see continued linear growth. July may be significantly higher based on production ramp up claims. An interesting 1-2 months ahead.
6/6
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