1. THE ELITE CIRCLES. This is the New York that gets depicted in the media. It's 56% white, 63% college-educated, and is the most progressive/lefty part of the city. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
2. THE TRUE-BLUE BRONX. By contrast, this borough votes loyally for establishment Democrats. It's 57% Hispanic and is centered heavily on the Bronx (duh). fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
3. THE BLACK BLOC. Another pretty moderate/establishment area, this one majority (63%) Black. However, it voted for Jumaane Williams, a progressive Black man, in 2018. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
4. THE LANDS OF CONTRADICTION. Usually votes for culturally conservative Dems, but was also a good region for Sanders in '16 (probably anti-Hillary protest votes). Also the Trumpiest area of NYC, by far. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
5. THE CROSSROADS. Where the other four boroughs meet. Lots of racial & political diversity makes this borough a good bellwether for the city as a whole. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
In justifying its decision, the Mississippi Supreme Court writes, "It is wholly within the realm of possibility that the drafters foresaw or even hoped for a drop in congressional representation that would render the ballot-initiative process unworkable." courts.ms.gov/Images/Opinion…
Which of course means that @NateSilver538's definition of New England is probably just Suffolk and Middlesex counties now, post-Mookie trade.
On the other hand, this might legitimately be the most recent map of MLB fandom we have... That @UpshotNYT tour de force is somehow 7 years old now. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Because of the pandemic, I’ve been buying Girl Scout cookies online, which means I’ve finally been able to try both the ABC Bakers and Little Brownie Bakers cookies. This thread will serve as a taste test.
1. The biggest difference: S’mores. Both good in their own way. If you like creamy chocolate, you want ABC, but I lean slightly toward the higher graham-cracker-to-chocolate ratio of LBB.
2. Thin Mints. Very similar taste, but Little Brownie (left) is flakier while ABC is denser. ABC wins this one.
White wards in SW St. Louis, like 16, 24, 23, and 10 cast the most votes per ballot (as many as 1.79).
Black wards on the north side, like 1, 27, 21, and 4, cast the fewest (1.34 votes per ballot or lower).
Cara Spencer, the white progressive alderwoman, won a spot in the runoff by doing well in white wards, both conservative working-class ones and liberal gentrifying ones. She got very little support on the Black north side. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Seems the point is to sabotage the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact by preventing a popular vote calculation. Buuut unless the popular vote is super close, you'll still know who won it even without exact North Dakota results.
1. North Dakota is very small—only 565K eligible voters. Biden won the popular vote by 7 million.
2. If we know ND's percentages, you can apply those to even a rough turnout estimate and get a decent guess at the popular vote. Again, unless it's super close, you'll know.
This deserves a thoughtful response. First, I don't think it's true that all reporters thought Georgia was Lean R. Many of us wrote of it as a pure tossup... fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-c…
That said, if you had asked me two years in advance who'd have won a GA runoff, yes, I'd have said Republicans. There was SOME evidence for this (i.e., GOP overperformance in runoffs). But obviously, 1/5 showed that could be overcome.
So can the evidence for a good GOP year in 2022 be overcome too? Sure. But also, there is a MUCH bigger sample size of evidence saying midterms are bad for the prez party than there were for GA runoffs being pro-GOP.