Israel: Surge in Delta variant cases
Is Israel in danger of a return to many (>500) critically ill patients? I think chances are low
Yet, some steps should be taken to prevent the surge
And remember that all Covid-19 analyses are true for their time and subject to change
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Is Israel in danger of a return to many (>500) critically ill patients? I think chances are low
Yet, some steps should be taken to prevent the surge
And remember that all Covid-19 analyses are true for their time and subject to change
>>>
Why many severe cases are unlikely:
1. Pfizer's vaccine is as effective on Delta as on the existing strain in preventing serious illness (tinyurl.com/484bcpm2), Israel leads the world in % fully vaxed (>90% in people 50+ y/o). And evidently, still no rise yet in severe cases
1. Pfizer's vaccine is as effective on Delta as on the existing strain in preventing serious illness (tinyurl.com/484bcpm2), Israel leads the world in % fully vaxed (>90% in people 50+ y/o). And evidently, still no rise yet in severe cases
2. In countries with Delta and less vaccines than Israel, there is no increase in mortality:
UK: Delta is ~90% of cases, 46% are fully vaccinated, there is no increase in mortality
U.S.: Delta is ~20% of cases, 44% fully vaccinated, there is no increase in mortality
UK: Delta is ~90% of cases, 46% are fully vaccinated, there is no increase in mortality
U.S.: Delta is ~20% of cases, 44% fully vaccinated, there is no increase in mortality
3. Delta has been in Israel for two months and has not immediately led to a surge, so the recent increase may still be due to a number of "superspreading" events that will not lead to an uncontrolled surge. We still don't know
4. Before Delta, Israel reached (or neared) herd immunity: for 4 months cases only dropped and approached zero, despite return to normal. Some models estimated that 60% vaccinated may not suffice for herd immunity, and that many children would be infected, but this didn't happen
It is therefore possible that vaccinating kids 12-16 y/o will put Israel back at the threshold of herd immunity, if Delta indeed took us out of it
And yet, there's so much uncertainty with covid-19. Thus, we should also act to lower cases
How?
1. Vaccinate as many kids 12-16 y/o people 16+ y/o, as this will protect more people and lower the infection rate
How?
1. Vaccinate as many kids 12-16 y/o people 16+ y/o, as this will protect more people and lower the infection rate
2. As a precaution and for a limited time, return masks in closed and crowded places, since it is a small price to pay compared to the price of misjudgment
3. Enforce better isolation of verified cases, we are not good at this
3. Enforce better isolation of verified cases, we are not good at this
4. Improve ventilation in schools and closed places, because it will also reduce infections and prevent superspreading events
What's next for Israel?
If the increase in severe cases will indeed be moderate with an open economy, then Israel will have to decide on its strategy:
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If the increase in severe cases will indeed be moderate with an open economy, then Israel will have to decide on its strategy:
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1. Leave the economy open and accept a certain death toll from covid-19 as we do with other diseases. With vaccines, this became an option, as there is no longer the danger of collapse of the health system
2. Act to eradicate covid-19, i.e., continue to ease and place restrictions in Israel and on the borders, according to the current covid-19 data
This is a policy decision, and therefore a decision that only a government can take
Of course, if the number of severe cases returns to what it was at its peak (unlikely in my opinion, see above) then there is no question and we will have to bring back major restrictions
Of course, if the number of severe cases returns to what it was at its peak (unlikely in my opinion, see above) then there is no question and we will have to bring back major restrictions
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