Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: Euros – Round of 16

Here I give you a statistical rundown on all the players to pick and avoid as we head into the round of 16:

#Euro2020 #EuroFantasy

*In collaboration with @drafthound – my content partner

*Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent

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✅ Player rankings
✅ Predicted line-ups
✅ Individual match odds

Everything you need for your #EuroFantasy team 👇

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Wales v Denmark: Wales come into the round of 16 having accumulated the worst xG conceded of all teams to have qualified so far. I expect Denmark to win this, but think the goals will be spread around. Personally, I wouldn’t be going for a Denmark attacker for this very reason...

... but if budget is a constraint, then Damsgaard as a cheap midfielder could be worth picking. Maehle is Denmark’s standout fantasy asset for me. He is playing in an advanced position as the left wing back and over the course of the tournament so far, he's top for...

... penalty area touches among defenders averaging over six penalty area touches per game. Denmark was unlucky to concede a penalty against Russia, and till date have been posting good defensive numbers. I'd back them for a clean sheet against Wales this week.

Italy v Austria: Italy are coming on the back of ten consecutive clean sheets and are backed by the bookies as the standout favorites for a clean sheet this week. Spinazzola is an obvious pick but doubling up with Di Lorenzo is a good option too – I scoured through his numbers...

... in the Euro qualifiers and he posted good attacking numbers whenever he played. With Florenzi still not back in training, he should start. I’m a fan of each one of their front three individually as picks. Berardi is just €6.2m and is an easy pick as he possesses a fair...

... amount of goal threat and helps as a budget enabler with the rest of the team. Insigne has similar goal threat to Berardi but has slightly better assist potential as he's going to be on set pieces while Immobile is the major goal threat having...

.. accumulated more than double the number of big chances than anyone else in this Italian side so far.

Netherlands v Czech Republic: Czech Republic qualify into the round of 16 being the team out of those qualified to have recorded the fewest number of big chances. That is why I believe that doubling up on the Netherlands defence is a good option – not only do they have a good...

... fixture this matchday but according to the bookies they are the second likeliest team to make the semis. Dumfries comes into the knockouts having registered at least double the number of big chances of all defenders to have played in the Euros so far. Wijnaldum has...

... recorded the highest number of shots in the box among midfielders while Depay I believe is the standout captaincy option on the day when the Netherlands' play. His goal and assist threat are second to none.

Belgium v Portugal: Lukaku being a Golden Boot contender and Belgium's main goalscorer is a safe option to pick from this fixture. I'm backing him for more goals in the knockout stages. Kevin De Bruyne has played just the two games yet has created the most chances in this...

... tournament – having created seven chances in the previous game alone. It’s unwise to back against Ronaldo given his form but I think I’d rather back a Belgium attacking asset here, particularly given Portugal’s vulnerabilities at the back. People question the...

... Belgium defence but it’s worth noting that along with England, they have conceded the fewest big chances in the tournament.

Croatia v Spain: Spain have the highest xG among all teams to have played three matches so far. Their finishing was letting them down in the earlier games but they finally put that to bed in the game against Slovakia. The challenge is to figure out who starts from their front...

... three. Sarabia and Moreno are two standout budget picks in my opinion. Sarabia put in a great performance so should be safe to start the next game. He has accumulated five big chance involvements in the tournament so far, so is heavily involved whenever he plays...

... Moreno, on the other hand, is matching the most premium forwards for anytime goalscorer odds this week and is heavily backed by the bookies to score. I think I’d avoid Perisic in this fixture given the fact that I believe he has a low ceiling.

France v Switzerland: France are second favorites for a clean sheet this week and are the most likely team to score three or more goals according to the bookies. Varane, Lloris and Kimpembe are secure defensive options given the uncertainity surrounding the French full backs...

... Mbappe and Benzema are the two standout attacking picks for me given the positions they are taking up, which rules out Griezmann as an option. I don't think there is much between Mbappe and Benzema in terms of goal threat but the latter allows for a €2 million saving...

... and is on penalties. It is worth putting out though that Mbappe is massively underperforming – he has had four big chance involvements in the tournament so far but is yet to directly register a goal or assist.

England v Germany: This is a hard game to call and given the premium price tags of both sets of players involved in the game, I would probably avoid all players from this one because there are more standout fixtures out there to target. On the contrary, you could argue that...

... the winner of this game has a reasonably easy fixture against Sweden or Ukraine in the next round so risking one asset could be worth it.

Sweden v Ukraine: I’m expecting a low scoring game here. I wouldn’t pick more than one asset from this one because I’d expect whichever team who wins here to lose in the next round when they come against the likes of Germany or England. Forsberg is the obvious pick here being...

... one of the best mid-priced midfielders available as we head into the round of 16. He's on all set pieces including penalties so has numerous routes to points. Another point worth noting here is that he gives an additional captaincy option on the last day of the matchday...

... should all else fail. Isak, like Mbappe, has been very unlucky in this tournament. He has recorded five big chance involvements yet has blanked in each one of his fixtures. One of him or Forsberg would be my pick from this one. If you’re looking...

... to be different, then Kulusevski from Sweden is a €7 million midfielder who is likely to start up front after registering two assists in his cameo appearance against Poland.

A big thank you to my friend @fplwaleed who has been helping me with my work during the Euros and will also be contributing to my threads for FPL next season! Make sure to follow him to show your support!

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