The annual population estimate from the ONS has just been published, and shows a 0.4% increase across the UK (from June 19 to June 20) to 67.1m. That's the lowest growth rate since 2001.
For those of us looking at age bands to work out vaccine take-up rates, the biggest increase is in the 75-79 group, (+3.6% for England) which has previously been an anomaly with take-up over 100%.
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Mid year to mid year, there's the lowest natural change (births less deaths) for at least 38 years. This is due to fewer births and more deaths (up 13% - the highest in 34 years).
Net international migration makes up the balance of the overall increase.
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Continuing a trend for several years, London sees the largest outflow of residents, being around 1% of the population in the latest year, very slightly up on the previous year.
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🏴had the largest increase last year, just ahead of 🏴. Is that the great rugby, the glorious weather, or the removal of the M4 tolls in Dec 18 I wonder?
In contrast,🏴 had the lowest increase.
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London has by far and away the lowest median age, around 5 years lower than many areas - that's important when considering the roll out of the vaccine.
In contrast the SW is the oldest, 8 years higher than London.
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There's a neat little interactive tool you can play around with to compare your area with another.
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Next year's update will use the results of the recent census, adjusted for the period between the census date to the end of June.
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359k reported today, down 12% on last week, with both 1st and 2nd doses lower.
1st doses of 200k were 8% lower. I estimate there's just over 2m of unsatisfied demand for 1st doses outstanding, so around 11 days worth at the current rate.
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Take-up for U40s here. It's a bit strange that NI is so far behind for 30-39, but broadly the same as E and S under 30.
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We can see here that the NI figure for 30-39 isn't really moving much, so maybe it will end with a considerably lower take-up?
Under 30, E & S are adding between 1.5% and 2% daily, but again NI is much slower at 0.5%.
A poor day today, with just under 400k total doses being 15% lower on a week ago.
First doses of 222k were down 9%, which is the real disappointment as we push to complete the younger age groups.
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Just a quick summary of the younger ages position today. Under 30, England has now passed 50%.
2nd doses of 178k are predictably down 20% on last week, and the 7D total has fallen below 1.2m, consistent with the low run rate of 1st doses 8 weeks ago.
The latest #infection survey from @ONS shows a dramatic increase in S, with increases also in W and E and a small fall in NI.
E 🔼from 0.19% to 0.22% (1 in 440)
W 🔼from 0.07% to 0.12% (1 in 830)
NI 🔽from 0.16% to 0.14% (1 in 720)
S 🔼🔼🔼from 0.17% to 0.46% (1 in 220)
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Here's the data, along with the Confidence Intervals.
It's clear that whilst the CI's are much wider for W/S/NI, the S increase is still very significant.
W has bounced around recently but seems to be on an upward trend too, as is E. NI appears more stable.
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Regionally, the NW and NE are still on the increase, whereas elsewhere it's a mixed picture. Albeit at lower levels the SW and East are rising too, others appear stable or even possibly falling.
The latest PHE surveillance report on Delta is now out. A flash summary on some key points.
The analysis of cases/admissions/deaths now helpfully includes an age split at 50. Of 109 deaths over 50, 38 were unvaccinated (a third), yet represent ~5% of that population.
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Nevertheless 50 who died had received both jabs. Remember though that no vaccine is 100% effective, and the risk factors are many times higher in the fully vac'd group because of the priority ordering.
In the last couple of weeks for which data is available, there seems to have been a big increase in the proportion of cases via hospitality, consistent with the reopening of indoor venues in mid May. Education setting fell with half terms.
Always the quietest day of the week, 273k total reported today, down 17% due to the rapid fall in 2nd doses.
1st doses of 164k are up 11% as we work our way through the final youngest age groups. Speaking of which...
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Looking at those younger groups, we see that Scotland becomes the first to top 75% in the 30-39 band. Great news! Below 30, Wales is making very slow progress, suggesting it is going to max out at around 70%.
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Recent daily movements that show how Scotland is still pushing on with the Over 30s, in contrast to the other nations.