Thread by @FreedomFriesInc

(1) I have kept any discussion about the cause(s) of the #SurfsideBuildingCollapse out of my thread of ways to help those affected. (Link below.)

Having spent the past 10 years watching hundreds of New Zealand buildings being condemned for seismic risk, I am aghast.

(2) Source for the above:

edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/m…

My other thread, free of engineering talk:

https://twitter.com/FreedomFriesInc/status/1408555795709501444

(3) I also wrote about a similar tragedy on March 15, 2018, that cost 6 lives. The collapse of the pedestrian footbridge at Florida International University in West Miami:

https://twitter.com/FreedomFriesInc/status/974361417921961984

(4) Both cases are complex. At Surfside, many of the organizations that may be at fault are trying to front-foot the PR situation, which I think is unwise, at best. Where they are denying any foreknowledge of the risk, that will only serve to anger the community at this stage.

(5) The number of commercial buildings in NZ taken out of commission due to seismic risks identified after the 2011 earthquakes here is enormous. Probably well over 1,000 buildings. It has impacted the economy.

I predict the housing shortages in parts of the US will get worse.

(6) It is simply unconscionable for owners and managers to ignore engineering reports of this nature about a large apartment building.

Both the building itself, and the land underneath it, showed clear issues.

(7) To mitigate the risk of owners and managers doing this, government has a regulatory role in terms of public safety. I'm not going to comment at this point on whether local authorities were doing their job right, but it will need to be investigated in due course.

(8) When NZ was faced with the death of 115 people in a building collapse that should have been prevented, our building operational codes were changed. Immediately.

This meant the closure of every at-risk building, pending engineering assessment. Over time, some re-opened.

(9) It causes significant disruption to a community, and a country. But it is necessary in situations where subsequent collapses could occur at any time.

The crisis affects buildings of a similar age & construction type, & coastal areas with certain geological features.

(10) There may also be inland locations where the stability of building foundations will need to be assessed.

The potential issues associated with constructing large, heavy buildings right beside a beach are well known. Often, development has occurred at a fast pace.

(11) It will still be possible to construct such buildings near beaches, but the cost of risk assessment and mitigation will increase.

There will be homeowners and occupants whose anxiety about remaining in a building they feel is high risk means they will vacate, if they can.

(12) There will be costs and legal liability out the wazoo.

Insurance costs for all involved will increase. Taxes may have to increase. There may be temporary shortages in construction workers and engineers.

It's never a good time, but especially not now.

(13) So, we are looking at a ripple effect, from those directly affected by this particular building collapse, nearby buildings, out to the city, county & state governments, businesses, & individuals, then onto the national & international levels.

Eg, a few minutes ago:

(14) Now, I realize FL is not esp. earthquake prone, but plenty of places in the US are.

Los Angeles has similar geology to Christchurch, NZ, in that "liquefaction" will be a big problem in a major earthquake there.

So much work to be done.

nbclosangeles.com/news/californi…

(15) Update at 7.45pm ET:

City building officials doing just a "cursory review" of a a building is why 115 people died in New Zealand's 2011 CTV building collapse.

Stay skeptical, folks. I'd be out of North & East towers & staying out until proper assessments are done.

(16) We know from hurricanes and the pandemic that voluntary orders don't work. They must be mandatory.

This is so financial compensation can be triggered, and it makes it easier for families worried about a loved one's refusal to protect themselves.

Learn from NZ in 2011.

(17) I haven't explained this yet so here goes.

Two earthquakes 5 months apart brought down the CTV building. Commercial buildings that are earthquake resistant are designed to survive long enough for people to get out. Building loss after that point is expected & accepted.

(18) Every other large Christchurch building survived in terms of saving lives. Over 600 buildings were later demolished, and to this day residents of the city are not keen to use or live in buildings higher than about 3-4 stories. Fortunately there is plenty of land there.

(19) Christchurch & the province of Canterbury, NZ have the kind of fault lines that can cause #foreshock & parts of California do too.

The public didn't understand this after the foreshock on 9/4/2010, centered several miles outside of the city.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Cant…

(20) Another minor earthquake on 12/26/2010. Engineers assessed the building after both events & declared it safe. However, occupants reported cracks, & tremors from passing trucks.

I think all Kiwis would like others to learn from our tragedy:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CTV_Build…

(21) When the major quake hit the downtown area on 2/22/2011 it was much worse than the Sept quake, & we knew instantly there would've been fatalities. The US sent search & rescue teams, crisis counselors, engineers, you name it. We are forever grateful.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Chri…

(22) My key message is this: All buildings linked to the collapsed tower in Surfside by similar design & maintenance &/or proximity must be fully evacuated until rigorous, in-depth, on-site engineering assessments of building AND ground conditions are made, submitted & accepted.

(23) By "similar design & maintenance" I mean similar design & LACK OF maintenance, such as receiving a report like the now-public 2018 engineering report & then not telling occupants of the risk, or doing the work.

Every time you step in to a building you trust the owner.

(24) Trust me, plenty of us Christchurch quake survivors to this day point blank refuse to enter some buildings. We find another business to use or hotel to stay in.

Many Surfside survivors & families will be the same, in due course. I weep for them.

rnz.co.nz/news/national/…

(25) Thread #3 from me about the #SurfsideBuildingCollapse is at the link below.

No doubt there will be a Thread #4 and in the end a directory thread with links to the series. Part personal journal, stream of consciousness, and PSA.

Stay safe.

https://twitter.com/FreedomFriesInc/status/1408975661574672387