Thread by @FreedomFriesInc

(1) Thread #3: Updates on the #SurfsideBuildingCollapse tragedy in Miami, Florida.

This short video gives you a snapshot into where the families are now at, approximately 60 hours post collapse:

us.cnn.com/videos/us/2021…

(2) I'm writing threads about this building collapse for two reasons.

a) It's a tragedy that will likely end up with a death toll of >160 people. That puts it in the realm of Hurricane Katrina, Oklahoma city 1995 etc.

b) I have experience from a similar incident in 2011

(3) I'll add links to my earlier threads further down. For now I want to stress this point:

The community is nearing the point at which they will have to accept that their loved ones are not coming back.

No one wants to be the one to give the bad news, including me.

(4) Which is why I'm not a Mayor, Governor, or other public figure. I do analysis behind the scenes and leave it for braver people to face the public.

The "5 stages of grief" aren't linear. People cycle over time between shock, denial, bargaining, anger, and acceptance.

(5) They also become emotionally and physically exhausted. Their state of mind can change once the communal waiting period ends and they go their separate ways.

I've said many times since Jan 2020 that humanity would be in for a rough ride because of pandemic & everything else.

(6) An uncountable number of people have already given up, whether by taking action, or just allowing nature to take its course. Their loved ones are even worse off now.

I'm learning a lot about human nature & the cognitive biases we all have, & their effect in a crisis.

(7) Just please, please, think about the concept of #NoPoliticsOnTheBoat, over the next couple of years:

(8) That was a social media post during Hurricane Harvey in 2017. The estimated US death toll was 107.

How about when we're not on the boat, we talk politics if we want, and when we're on the boat, we don't. It would be a help to those who never asked to wind up on the boat.

(9) Thread 1 was about what we can do to help, wherever we are. Better info is now coming out, such as on the CNN live updates page, with links and contact details etc.

https://twitter.com/FreedomFriesInc/status/1408555795709501444

(10) I started a separate Thread 2, when I had enough factual info to start talking about the engineering issues. I used to jumble it all together in the same thread but I think this is a better approach now.

https://twitter.com/FreedomFriesInc/status/1408758022382309379

(11) I never know how many threads I'm going to write about a live incident like this. Once it becomes a lengthy issue I start a directory thread with links to all threads.

People/astroturfers opposing my political views say I'm full of myself. I'm not a 12yo, or I might care.

(12) Find me someone else on Twitter with experience of a mass casualty event from a building collapse in their city, with emergency management, govt & PR experience, who gives a damn about what happens in other countries, then I won't need to write about it here, will I? 🤓

(13) Update: 7.40am ET, Sunday, 78 hours after the collapse.

- FEMA Director to visit today at request of POTUS
- 5 confirmed deaths (4 names released)
- 156 still missing

Officially they are missing but IMO the chance of survival now is essentially zero. Because,

(14) To survive a building collapse like this one after the first 24 hours the person would have to be in a "pocket" with some kind of roof, water source, be not severely injured, and unaffected by dust, smoke, and fire. Earthquakes are slightly different.

(15) Depending on building type, there can be miracle pockets after an earthquake, where perhaps a young child or infant has a water source & is pulled out of the rubble days later.

The Surfside building was mostly concrete, & very heavy. Much of the concrete turned to dust.

(16) This interview was shown on the first day, June 24th. Pablo Rodriguez' mother told him on June 23rd she was woken from her sleep by loud creaking sounds around 3am. The collapse occurred around 1.30am the following day.

us.cnn.com/videos/us/2021…

(17) It's hard to describe the interviewer Erin Burnett's great empathy and Pablo Rodriguez's uncommon strength. Very moving, you may need your Kleenex handy.

I recommend watching it, though.

(18) I can cope bc our NZ tragedy was more than 10 years ago & it's not so raw now. I remember seeing on TV every day the loved ones waiting for news near the building.

In video from Surfside I see the looks on the faces of media, officials & families. Everyone looks shaken.

(19) I want readers to know that those affected by Surfside will get through this. They will smile again. Eventually life will be pieced together. You never believe that at the time, & that is normal. Best way to help them is quietly. Let them cry, talk & even laugh sometimes.

(20) In a separate event I lost a loved one, & I agonized over whether she suffered before she passed. By receiving information about the nature of the accident, I became confident that she did not. That was a huge load off my mind. I think the victims of Surfside went quickly.

(21) I've reported on a number of emergency situations like this one and have assessed the PR performance of the Mayors or CEOs etc involved.

IMO Miami-Dade Co Mayor Daniella Levine Cava is doing great. Surfside Mayor Charles Burkett is not up to the task. Because:

(22) Burkett is simultaneously giving false hope, while ignoring the risk that occupants of the North and East towers are in.

No one is going to come out of that rubble pile "safely." That was a bad faux pas.

His 100% promise to the families ignores the other occupants.

And

(23) Burkett, nor anyone else, can rationally guarantee that everyone is going to be brought out, in a way that would enable a set of remains to be transferred out of a morgue to a family.

How do I explain this... the building was large and heavy... the rubble is mostly dust...

(24) Some of the families will be able to receive their loved one's remains and bury or cremate them. Many others will not be able to.

Mayor Levine Cava is a highly experienced 65yo social worker & lawyer with the right skillset for this task. Miami is blessed to have her atm.

(25) I have seen this problem before, notably in the way the 2018 FIU footbridge collapse was handled, just across town in Miami.

Prior to that, I saw it in 2010 after a methane explosion in a coal mine at Pike River, NZ, took 29 lives.

I wrote about both cases on Twitter.

(26) Hopefully, though, the families at Surfside will realize a politician can promise you the world, but the results are what they are.

And hopefully, North & East Tower occupants will vacate for at least a week despite Mayor Burkett's faith in a cursory engineering review.

(27) When Sen Rick Scott was Gov during Hurricane Irma in 2017, he urged evacuations by saying "we can replace property, we can't replace a life."

In all likelihood, those tower blocks will survive the next few months & be certified or remedied. But I wouldn't take the chance.

(28) USACE involvement is a good sign. They have enough personnel who can drop everything & help. If changing ground conditions at this coastal site contributed along with building faults to the collapse, they will find out.

(29) I'm pleased to hear the FEMA Director saying this community is their top priority.

Further 2021 emergencies are likely bc of extreme heat & wildfire risk in the West, & a series of storms, floods, & tornadoes elsewhere. FEMA can handle it. They improved tons after Katrina.

(30) IMO, Florida is one of the best hurricane prone states at emergency management in general. There are some potential storms brewing at the moment but they are still a long way out, if they develop and head towards the state. There is time if they need to shift gear for that.

(31) FEMA Director Deanne Criswell was sworn in on April 26, 2021. Her resume is outstanding. Wow.

Firefighter, Air National Guard, Master of Public Admin, Navy Postgrad School Master of Homeland Security... this warms my emergency management heart.

(32) This page has really great info and links on how we can support those affected by Surfside, from wherever we are.

Also the national disaster @distressline is free & 24/7. If this event triggers past disaster trauma, you can call them for support.

edition.cnn.com/2021/06/25/us/…

(33) This thread has gotten too long, so here is a link to Thread #4:

https://twitter.com/FreedomFriesInc/status/1409261377013764096