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Raoul Pal Profile picture
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26 Jun, 11 tweets, 6 min read
If you are as fascinated by community tokens as I am (I think it is the future of business models) then this interview with @hendry_hugh and @KevinChou with @AshBennington is fabulous.

realvision.com/shows/the-inte…
It is all part of my knowledge journey in community tokens that started with @RAC

realvision.com/shows/the-inte…
Then @pierskicks took it to a new stratosphere...the metaverse

realvision.com/shows/the-inte…
I then got into the deep weeds on DOAs, Web 3.0 and community business models with the excellent @jarroddicker

realvision.com/shows/the-inte…
In order to frame it as a larger concept around what Web 3.0 looks like, I enlisted the help of @RolfHoefer

realvision.com/shows/the-inte…
And finally (thus far, more to come!), @packyM helped clarify all the learning.

realvision.com/shows/the-expo…
I then pushed @hendry_hugh down that very deep rabbit hole during a chaotic session over sunset drinks on two Caribbean islands (with mosquitos)...

realvision.com/tv/videos/id/d…
And @AshBennington led Hugh to @KevinChou as one of the thought leaders and leading platforms in the space *(Rally).

realvision.com/shows/the-inte…
Next week, to broaden my (our) knowledge further, I will be talking to @alex_dreyfus to learn about how Socios and Chiliz is changing sports fandom around tokens.

Im sure that will lead to even more interesting conversations with others...
This is exactly what makes @RealVision so powerful. You can take these deep learning journeys down every part of the macro, investing and crypto landscapes.

There is simply nothing like it anywhere.
Sorry, correct link:

realvision.com/shows/presenta…

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
28 Jun
The macro winds might be changing...

Macro is ruled by two assets - the US dollar and US treasuries. If they move together they are usually telling us something important. It is time to have them both on your radar screen... 1/
Using the Euro/$ as the proxy for the dollar...there is risk of a very large head and shoulder forming. The dollar tends to rally on economic weakness (and falling yields). Image
And 10 year rates look like they are going to test the uptrend. If my hunch that H2 is going to be weaker than expected is correct, this trend line will confirm. After all, bonds speak the economic truth. Image
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
26 Jun
If you are interested in The Exponential Age, James Anderson of Scottish Mortgage is The Godfather of investing in the theme (in listed markets).

This short 15 mins interview is worth watching.

bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individu…
His fund is one of the best performing in history...truly exponential. He is a measured and very reasonable man...
The log scale of this London listed fund makes much more sense...
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
25 Jun
Amazing interviews on the Real Vision Festival of Learning. Just watched good friends @SantiagoAuFund and @profplum99 who were so, so useful for many and as ever, great! @wolfejosh was the festival headliner with 2 incredible interviews; @nfergus who is always exceptional 1/
and a good friend of @RealVision too, along with the phenomenal @kahneman_daniel who was in my top 5 choice of guests ever for Real Vision (Finally got him!!). The round table between all three was the icing on the cake.
The depth and breadth of learning from this event, from the smartest minds in the world, fuck ups, processes and successes, is something magic.

Bravo!

And on top are amazing Real Visionaries like @TommyThornton @PeterLBrandt @markopapic @choffstein @DeeSmithTexas @JulianMI2
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
17 Jun
The dollar is always the KEY macro variable.

When it moves, everything moves. If the dollar rises sharply back to the middle of the range, it kills the inflation narrative for now.

The real guts of the inflation debate is more likely next year's story.
It is normal to see inflation fears immediately after recessions but they tend to ease sharply (or entirely reverse, as do bond yields).
And The Fed always cuts again (for 2 years) after the recession as stimulus and re-bound effects wear off...
Read 11 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
14 Jun
Let's see how the Fed plays out but PTJ's observation that if they stick with their unemployment narrative then that is wildly bullish tech (BTC and gold too). Many big tech charts are looking poised to break higher, along with $ARKK.

Also....
If they remain serious about full employment (which I think they are) then either yields rises and yield curve control kicks in, expanding the balance sheet and pushing up risk assets, after an initial drop... or...
the post reopening rebound slows, as does relation (as is normal after initial post-recession, and is my base base for 2021) and the Fed have a hair trigger to do more QE and gov has hair trigger to do more stim.
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
7 Jun
I find DeMark Indicators work well for me for assessing probabilities. The weekly 9 on the log trend line in BTC feels about the right chance of a reversal higher. If this fails over a few weeks (lower odds), its will lead to much longer pain. Lets see...
That is in line with my work from GMi...
Read 4 tweets

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