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Raoul Pal Profile picture
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7 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
I find DeMark Indicators work well for me for assessing probabilities. The weekly 9 on the log trend line in BTC feels about the right chance of a reversal higher. If this fails over a few weeks (lower odds), its will lead to much longer pain. Lets see...
That is in line with my work from GMi...

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
6 Jun
To be fair, my flippant comments about the BTC conference being a bit cringe was a reflection of the media coverage of the more extreme aspects but the truth is the speakers and many of the attendees are some of the smartest, most interesting forward thinkers Ive ever known.
We all have to learn to separate the people from the technology and opportunity. It is not about individuals, but about adoption of a network. Everyone plays their role and each plays different roles.
The negative reaction to some of the more over the top speakers also shows that the space has transitioned from early phase to a more mature adoption phase where individuals create less marginal positive impact and may even have negative impact
Read 13 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
25 May
Something to get your head around:

Head Line:

A major asset class crashed 42% in 14 days, wiping out $1.02trn in value in an orgy of liquidation of people up to 100 x levered, with very low regulation. Many tokens fell up to 70%, including unregulated lending and borrowing biz.
Beneath the head line:

Crypto had a major, major VAR-shock test and NOTHING happened.

Leverage liquidation was offset by overcollateralisation. No one was left holding the baby.
No firm went under.
The Fed didn't need to step in.
Defi didn't break and carried on near normal
There were no daisy chains of collateral losses.
There was no collateral pressure.
Stablecoins remained stable.
A few exchanges went down for an hour or two. No exchange big losses occurred, no need to mutualise losses either.
No protocol failed.
No firms needed rapid funding.
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
24 May
One of the key features of Network Effect models is volatility within a logarithmic trend. The vol is a feature not a bug as it is more than compensated by the returns over time.
Example 1: Google
Example 2:
Read 10 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
14 May
So far on my Exponential Age take over of @RealVision for two weeks as been a stunning eye-opener..
We have had:
My overview on my new macro framework to set the stage:

realvision.com/shows/the-inte…
An incredible interview with @KiteVC to pick his incredible mind on the theme in order to get his "in the future" view of where this is all going:

realvision.com/shows/the-inte…
Read 8 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
13 May
Im just mulling over the evolution of the digital asset space...

My thoughts are that obviously we are mid cycle in this bull run. The two big breakout developments this time were Defi and NFT's. 1/2
When we get the next down cycle, there will be a clean up in this space and the winners will be ready for their mass adoption phase.

We haven't even started with what NFT's will morph into. It is not about art. It is about attaching trust and verification to anything.
I literally have no idea what protocols outside of BTC and ETH will get actual meaningful adoption. None of us do but some will and some will become ghost chains.
Read 12 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
2 May
I fist bought Bitcoin in November 2013. Here is the original article where I applied rudimentary stock to flow analysis, later perfected by @100trillionUSD

My equivalence price target was 700 ounces of gold = one BTC. At currency prices that is around $1.3m.
It kind of created a stir back then and gave the first ever macro valuation model for BTC.

It was also based around adoption effects...

Obviously, I think it actually exceeds the gold relative valuation over time. This cycle might get it to the original fair value, maybe not.
Here is an except for proof and interest:
Read 15 tweets

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