Thread by @RaoulGMI

Let's see how the Fed plays out but PTJ's observation that if they stick with their unemployment narrative then that is wildly bullish tech (BTC and gold too). Many big tech charts are looking poised to break higher, along with $ARKK.

Also....

If they remain serious about full employment (which I think they are) then either yields rises and yield curve control kicks in, expanding the balance sheet and pushing up risk assets, after an initial drop... or...

the post reopening rebound slows, as does relation (as is normal after initial post-recession, and is my base base for 2021) and the Fed have a hair trigger to do more QE and gov has hair trigger to do more stim.

But let's say Im the idiot and the Fed signals tapering and the markets sell off and bonds yield rise (with no YCC). They the probability of slower growth kicks in and the Fed come back into play in Q4 2021.

It feels a bit circular right now and the only difference is either assets just go up now or they have a VAR shock and then go up on new stimulus.

Welcome to the new stimulus-only world.