The macro winds might be changing...
Macro is ruled by two assets - the US dollar and US treasuries. If they move together they are usually telling us something important. It is time to have them both on your radar screen... 1/
Macro is ruled by two assets - the US dollar and US treasuries. If they move together they are usually telling us something important. It is time to have them both on your radar screen... 1/
Using the Euro/$ as the proxy for the dollar...there is risk of a very large head and shoulder forming. The dollar tends to rally on economic weakness (and falling yields). 
And 10 year rates look like they are going to test the uptrend. If my hunch that H2 is going to be weaker than expected is correct, this trend line will confirm. After all, bonds speak the economic truth.
The Citi Economic Surprises Index will also give us its signal if it falls below 0, showing that analysts have over forecasted growth and inflation
What does it all mean IF it happens?
Bonds up, rotation out of value into growth (tech up)
Maybe a cheeky VAR shock (short, sharp equity sell-off)
BTC up
gold up
correction in commodities
EM underperforming.
Let's see over the next month...
Bonds up, rotation out of value into growth (tech up)
Maybe a cheeky VAR shock (short, sharp equity sell-off)
BTC up
gold up
correction in commodities
EM underperforming.
Let's see over the next month...
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