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Raoul Pal Profile picture
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25 Jun, 5 tweets, 5 min read
Amazing interviews on the Real Vision Festival of Learning. Just watched good friends @SantiagoAuFund and @profplum99 who were so, so useful for many and as ever, great! @wolfejosh was the festival headliner with 2 incredible interviews; @nfergus who is always exceptional 1/
and a good friend of @RealVision too, along with the phenomenal @kahneman_daniel who was in my top 5 choice of guests ever for Real Vision (Finally got him!!). The round table between all three was the icing on the cake.
The depth and breadth of learning from this event, from the smartest minds in the world, fuck ups, processes and successes, is something magic.

Bravo!

And on top are amazing Real Visionaries like @TommyThornton @PeterLBrandt @markopapic @choffstein @DeeSmithTexas @JulianMI2
Howard Marks, @businesscycle @DrPippaM @jposhaughnessy @Jkylebass @MarkYusko @jasonbuck Nancy Davis.

We are so lucky!

It's like the Glastonbury or Coachella of Finance gods/goddesses.
And tomorrow...even more.

This is our mission...

Helping you understand the complex world of finance business and the global economy and giving you all the tools you need to succeed.

Everyone can learn to be a better investor.

This shit make me immensely proud!

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
17 Jun
The dollar is always the KEY macro variable.

When it moves, everything moves. If the dollar rises sharply back to the middle of the range, it kills the inflation narrative for now.

The real guts of the inflation debate is more likely next year's story.
It is normal to see inflation fears immediately after recessions but they tend to ease sharply (or entirely reverse, as do bond yields).
And The Fed always cuts again (for 2 years) after the recession as stimulus and re-bound effects wear off...
Read 11 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
14 Jun
Let's see how the Fed plays out but PTJ's observation that if they stick with their unemployment narrative then that is wildly bullish tech (BTC and gold too). Many big tech charts are looking poised to break higher, along with $ARKK.

Also....
If they remain serious about full employment (which I think they are) then either yields rises and yield curve control kicks in, expanding the balance sheet and pushing up risk assets, after an initial drop... or...
the post reopening rebound slows, as does relation (as is normal after initial post-recession, and is my base base for 2021) and the Fed have a hair trigger to do more QE and gov has hair trigger to do more stim.
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
7 Jun
I find DeMark Indicators work well for me for assessing probabilities. The weekly 9 on the log trend line in BTC feels about the right chance of a reversal higher. If this fails over a few weeks (lower odds), its will lead to much longer pain. Lets see...
That is in line with my work from GMi...
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
6 Jun
To be fair, my flippant comments about the BTC conference being a bit cringe was a reflection of the media coverage of the more extreme aspects but the truth is the speakers and many of the attendees are some of the smartest, most interesting forward thinkers Ive ever known.
We all have to learn to separate the people from the technology and opportunity. It is not about individuals, but about adoption of a network. Everyone plays their role and each plays different roles.
The negative reaction to some of the more over the top speakers also shows that the space has transitioned from early phase to a more mature adoption phase where individuals create less marginal positive impact and may even have negative impact
Read 13 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
25 May
Something to get your head around:

Head Line:

A major asset class crashed 42% in 14 days, wiping out $1.02trn in value in an orgy of liquidation of people up to 100 x levered, with very low regulation. Many tokens fell up to 70%, including unregulated lending and borrowing biz.
Beneath the head line:

Crypto had a major, major VAR-shock test and NOTHING happened.

Leverage liquidation was offset by overcollateralisation. No one was left holding the baby.
No firm went under.
The Fed didn't need to step in.
Defi didn't break and carried on near normal
There were no daisy chains of collateral losses.
There was no collateral pressure.
Stablecoins remained stable.
A few exchanges went down for an hour or two. No exchange big losses occurred, no need to mutualise losses either.
No protocol failed.
No firms needed rapid funding.
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
24 May
One of the key features of Network Effect models is volatility within a logarithmic trend. The vol is a feature not a bug as it is more than compensated by the returns over time.
Example 1: Google
Example 2:
Read 10 tweets

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