Bear theses that we refute include (1-5): 1) CCP regime change is intent on killing digital assets
2)Massive regulatory pressure from the US 3) The Fed will be tapering soon and that is bad for risk assets 4) Retail momentum and interest is dead 5) Lack of institutional interest
Bear theses that we refute include (6-10) 6) ESG concerns 7) Tether, Celsius, BlockFi, Binance risk 8) Microstrategy is going to be a forced seller of Bitcoin 9) Grayscale (GBTC) unlocks are going to crush the market 10) Digital asset fundamentals are deteriorating
If there are other bear market theses that we missed, please let us know and we'll try to address those as well.
Transparency update: We have periodically released public thoughts about select investments at @arca.
In the spirit of improving #transparency in this asset class, here is an update on these positions, and Arca's current involvement
$HXRO $CHZ $WNXM $EOS $SUSHI $LEO $GNO
1) $SUSHI
We loved it at $18.; we love it even more at $9. We have been large buyers over the past month, tripling our position with buys between $6 and $13, & we'll keep buying at depressed levels. We believe this is the cheapest asset in the market.
We have not sold any -- and continue to add. At 1.07x book value, WNXM is basically a free call option on Nexus' growth, which we think will be massive. There's a reason 3 Wall Street firms have written on Nexus recently - it works.
Hearing manymisconceptions about the $MSTR secured bond deal, what it means for $BTC, and many completely false narratives about "Will Saylor be forced to liquidate his BTC?"
Here's our interpretation of the bond covenants from the prospectus (h/t @MikeDershewitz )
Thread 👇
1) Collateral
Even though $MSTR says they intend to buy #Bitcoin, there is no promise or requirement to buy $BTC. This bond is a standard secured bond ($500MM) which is secured by all corp assets other than the first 92K BTC ($3.4bn @$37K) already purchased - that was carved out
The $500MM raised MAY be used to buy $BTC (which $MSTR said they will do), but the investing public should hold them to it if they don't. They are under no obligation to buy #Bitcoin.
Every sell-off ends when a catalyst emerges... easy to find catalysts for things like $ETH (EIP-1559), $DOT (parachain launch) but what will be the likely catalyst for $BTC?
Here are 2 possibilities:
1) People constantly confuse "institutional buyers" w/ "fast money traders"
Ruffer, Blackrock, Minerd, etc - traders. They entered (unemotionally) when $BTC was cheap & underlevered ahead of catalysts (4Q20) & exited when expensive, overlevered, & lost its catalysts (2Q21)
But these traders made a lot of money, & will return (with others) when $BTC gets cheap again... when
- leverage is flushed (✅)
- fear gets too high (✅)
- fiscal/monetary stimulus continues unabated
Nowhere else to go with rates heading back to 0% & the USD going down.
I said tokens turn customers into owners & incentivizes USAGE of a protocol & product, not that it incentivizes buyers of a token. Thus, not a get rich quick MLM. It is a way to attract & retain customers. MLMs favor the rich sellers; pass thru tokens favor the everyday customers
If a restaurant gave out free food for a month, it would attract customers, but be a failed biz model unless the food & service was so good that they came back after it was no longer free.
Tokens create step 1; step 2 is up to the project, & many are now succeeding at retention
Lots of people asking for my opinion right now... here's a quick and dirty thread 👇
First, think about what caused the rally since October 2020:
1) Low rates / low dollar
-- still very much in tact even though there are taper talks and inflationary data, rates and the dollar still have not reacted, which is still very bullish for risk assets
2) Inst money coming into the market
-- Inst money doesn't come faster or slower based on price moves. Those trying to deploy will still deploy, and they are. Though $GBTC & $COIN may have been leading indicators, as downward px moves show inst money was already slowing