Thread by @andrewflood

HIQA saying the introduction of Delta at scale is now inevitable “Due to high volume of travel between Ireland & UK (which is currently non-designated), the current system may be ineffective given the increasing prevalence of the Delta variant in the UK.” irishexaminer.com/news/arid-4031…

Our vaccination program has got to about 2/3 of the proportion of the population that the UKs has. Despite their greater coverage reopening indoor hospitality led to cases & now hospitalizations climbing - the north opened a week later & their climb starts a week later

https://twitter.com/1987Andrewk/status/1403054120311955459

While the situation will improve by July 5 we will still be 2 weeks behind vaccination schedule of reopening & as of now almost no one under 70 has both doses that are needed for good protection against Delta. Few young hospitality workers will even have dose 1 by then

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1402987976573947906

Some think that indoor pint profits are more important than the health of workers & customers because few will be expected to die of the many who become sick. However the health system hasn’t any capacity for 1000s of Covid hospitalizations without cancelling other care /3

A decision on pushing back dates needs to be made very soon to avoid the Xmas situation where owners were on radio saying the opening could not be postponed because they had invested in 30,000 worth of ingredients. We paid a lot for that in lives & months of lockdown /4

I don’t know enough about the industry to know where the balance lies timing wise but the lobbyists rather than pushing for a risky reopening need to push for rolling back the date for a safer opening at an interval that works as we watch things unfold in England & learn /5

Anti-gen testing isn’t the solution here - it’s been massively deployed in the UK and has not controlled Delta (whether it made things better or worse we may be able to learn but it’s certain it’s not a magic bullet). /6

To be clear as with other surges there isn’t a ‘tough it out’ option - trying that will just lead to a new lockdown once healthcare gets overwhelmed. That option only comes into existence once the fully vaccinated proportion is large /7

I’ve been optimistic about progress to date, indeed I think there probably isn’t a need to roll back the current level as outdoors is so much less risky. But it’s very clear that what is happening now in Britain would not be sustainable here & risking it may mean a lockdown /8

I think we are only talking of 2-3 week delay to allow vaccines to catch up to original rollout with a somewhat higher proportion of dose 2s. Only other option I see is indoor hospitality requiring proof of vaccination which is the route apartheid Israel took /9

Could a combination of public health tracking, good weather & luck keep Delta low long enough post July 5th? Maybe, but the risk is an August lockdown if that gamble fails. And we’d need to get to J5 with as few Delta cases as we have now (less than 20 new a week) /10

I don’t think that’s likely for the reasons HIQA outlines. Delta is now spreading in the north & my socials have photos from friends who have gone north & are having those indoor pints. Huge numbers work / live each side of the border /11

This surge would be different, indeed I should be fully vaccinated around July 5th. But I’m increasing uncomfortable with the morality of opening on the basis that most of the risk will now be on younger workers without even dose 1. We are near a safe exit that avoids doing that

As anyone following my daily tracking over the last 3 months will know I’ve been optimistic about progress & potential progress. But that’s been data driven & the data from the UK has been solidifying over the last week to warn us indoors is still trouble.

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1403028650467938313

I’ve also tracked the north in detail every day for months ( back to the Autumn) so spotted the potential shift to case growth earlier in the week - what happens there in the next 2 weeks is what will happen here post July 5th given enormous similarity

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1400804631769452544

Here's a very useful recharge of the HSE vaccination data that shows just how few people are fully vaccinated - with Delta opening up indoors probably means all those bars should first be red & the 4 on the right blue, it all over 50s fully vaccinated

https://twitter.com/JustAnotherCian/status/1403327881628033026?s=20

Chile which risked a premature opening on what looked like an impressive 60% vaccination rate now has a healthcare system in crisis & a new lockdown (the article doesn't say but this 60% seems to be of adults, not the entire population). /🧵
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-1…