Jun 9 #Covid19 Cautious Reopening with todays cases lowest this year (but possible BH effect). Added as red dots
259 cases, 64% last Weds
76 hospital, 82% last Weds
27 ICU, 77% last Weds
All well below expected, doing a bit better now than so far so good /1 Image
Also welcome news that Delta has only increased by 11 since last week so no increase in the rate of increase. England & Wales have seen cases double this week due to Delta & indoor hospitality having reopened. We could not afford that sort of rate of increase /2
Donnelly Tweeted an age incidence table that while showing vaccination protection of over 55s as he intended also revealed rising rates of infection in kids, teens & young adults. Almost no one in these groups is vaccinated or likely to be vaccinated any time before indoor pubs Image
The big danger is that Delta gets an in there and apart from causing some hospitalisations in those age group uses those infections as as way of infecting older adults not yet fully protected. This is a pattern we are arguably seeing across the Irish Sea /4
With the aim of doing 250-270k vaccine doses next week it also appears that the program has not accelerated as it would need to in order to reach the 80%+ of adults promised. This & Delta make the opening pubs indoors on July 5th risky unless cases continue to very low levels /5
Finally the low cases today & yesterday are very welcome but a note of caution is that the bank holiday would mean we should expect todays number to be lower than a normal Wednesday. We will see tomorrow if there is a return to above 400 cases per day /6

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More from @andrewflood

11 Jun
HIQA saying the introduction of Delta at scale is now inevitable “Due to high volume of travel between Ireland & UK (which is currently non-designated), the current system may be ineffective given the increasing prevalence of the Delta variant in the UK.” irishexaminer.com/news/arid-4031…
Our vaccination program has got to about 2/3 of the proportion of the population that the UKs has. Despite their greater coverage reopening indoor hospitality led to cases & now hospitalizations climbing - the north opened a week later & their climb starts a week later
While the situation will improve by July 5 we will still be 2 weeks behind vaccination schedule of reopening & as of now almost no one under 70 has both doses that are needed for good protection against Delta. Few young hospitality workers will even have dose 1 by then
Read 15 tweets
10 Jun
#Covid19Ireland Cautious Reopening plot June 10th with added as red dots
398 cases, 86% last Thursday
70 in hospital, 83% last Thursday
27 in ICU, 90% last Thursday
All indicators below expected with lowest 7 day average since the 17 December turning point to wave 3 /1 Image
45% of population now have partial protection of dose 1 vaccination, 22% have more substantial 'fully vaccinated' protection. These are quite short of where we need be in terms of risking opening of indoor hospitality as we are seeing from England
County data shows alarming situations in Limerick where infection are double those of the next worst hit counties and over 10 times that of those counties doing best /3
Read 4 tweets
8 Jun
#Covid19Ireland June 8th Cautious Reopening with lowest cases in a while (but possibly BH delay effect) , small rise in hospital (+8) & ICU (+1) since yesterday. Plotted as red dots
271 cases, 80% last Tuesday
Hospital 77, 87% last Tuesday
ICU 27, 79% last Tuesday
/1 Image
Hospital admissions for #Covid19 are now available again suggesting an accelerating if still slow decline recently - some protection for over 50s should be kicking in from here so if there is no large increase in cases number in hospital and number going into should fall /2 Image
The expectation is that cases will rise as a result of yesterdays opening in 8-10 days. With Paul Reid saying they are seeing a rapid fall over in over 55s cases with luck we will first see a further fall (which also means fewer to infect now) /3
Read 6 tweets
6 May
467 #Covid19Ireland positive swabs today is 96% of last Thursday despite 21k tests. Positivity at 2.2% - looks quite likely now this weeks swabs will come in under last weeks so a reduction /1
Average of 421 pos swabs over last 3 days which is 96% of same days last week. Projects as a slow reduction which will be accelerated by vaccination
404 wk1
387 wk2
371 wk3
355 wk4 - June 3rd
341 wk5
326 wk6
313 wk7
300 wk8
This is a big deal as it looks likely from GP referrals that we will get to the end of week 5 of the 6 'Vulnerable Period Ahead' weeks below the case levels of March 31st rather than 1200+ cases above that level. There it gets increasingly hard for things to go badly wrong /3
Read 5 tweets
6 May
Lab evaluation of Covid antigen test Lidl are selling on *suspected* Covid subjects (not random)
1 in 27 positive results will actually be PCR negative
1 in 119 negative results will actually be PCR positive
*when* the test is administered by experts
I'd imagine people randomly testing themselves at home if going to reduce those accuracies quite a bit. Also with the negatives the issue that there's about an additional 40% false negative from people testing themselves too soon after infection for it to be picked up
One of the entertaining things about the push for mass use of antigen testing is the conspiracy theorists with wild concerns about the very low rate of false positives from PCR seem strangely keen on tantigen tests that have many times the false positive rate
Read 9 tweets
5 May
435 #Covid19Ireland positive swabs which is 99% of last Wednesdays - note the bank holidays might have artificially depressed that though. Perhaps not as 2.24% positivity on 19,406 tests, only 1000 less than last week
Average of 435 pos swabs over the last 3 days is 98% of same days last week. That fits recent pattern of static cases and projects as
388 wk1
379 wk2
371 wk3
363 wk4 - June 2nd
355 wk5
348 wk6
340 wk7
333 wk8
GP referral data from Tuesday will appear as Weds/Thurs swabs - thankfully not showing a bank holiday extra spike & in fact 'clinically likely Covid' is below every day last week which would suggest swabs in the low 400s. Loth, Galway & Wexford were the hotspots /3
Read 6 tweets

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