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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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1 Jul, 22 tweets, 10 min read
Anyone who doubts the #DeltaVariant wave is coming only needs to look at Israel🇮🇱 and UK🇬🇧—two of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world. Hospitalizations are increasing ⬆️ in both countries too. US🇺🇸 is ~1 month behind UK—but US vaccinations are slowly. #COVID19 🧵
2) Are England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 hospitalization increasing? Yes.
3) are Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 hospitalizations also increasing? Yes.
4) Are UK #COVID19 deaths increasing? Oh yes.
5) Is Israel 🇮🇱 seeing hospitalizations suddenly for #COVID19? Ummm, yes. 6 sudden new hospital admissions overnight. “Not seen in a long time” says reporter @JeffSmithi24.
6) Many low vaccination states in the US are soaring already in #COVID19 cases. Here are some of the fastest surging ones— Nevada Missouri Utah Arizona Arkansas and Oklahoma
7) Scotland is now having a new **all time record high surge** in cases. Higher than even the winter surge. That’s #DeltaVariant. And it can spark large outbreaks in public gatherings.
8) Most of the Scotland surge is young adults. But notice it’s rising in those 45-65 and elderly age groups too— who are all mostly vaccinated. Scotland is a 49% overall fully vaccinated country.
9) UK schools don’t mandate masks anymore. That was one of the worst decisions ever.
10) if only UK had mandated school masks, kids could be in schools more.
11) Dangerous—“it really worries me the lack of context… publishing the daily testing cases just drives fear” ~ Conservative MP Miriam Cates who says #COVID19 data should not be published.

I don’t know who this dumb MP is, but she sounds very Trump-like.
12) key issue is that while you’re personally protected if 2-dose vaccinated (60% AZ & 79-88% Pfizer efficacy, 94% for hospitalization), the much higher transmission (2x faster transmissibility than old) means a higher herd level needed to stop #DeltaVariant from harming others.
13) Singapore Delta outbreak proves it—vaccinated still transmitted. In this #DeltaVariant cluster alone, among 29 vaccinated who were infected, 21 transmissions events were between vaccinated-to-vaccinated or vaccinated-to-unvaccinated. That is a lot! covid.viz.sg
14) Meanwhile - cruise ship 🛳 anyone? The actuaries are trying to tell us something about what is coming.
15) for those wondering, yes, Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 new all time epidemic peak is now all #DeltaVariant. This will be happening almost everywhere that Delta arrives.
16) here is how #DeltaVariant that is 2x more contagious and 4x more severe in hospitalization risk, even with vaccine that is pretty good and lowers death, could actually be worse if unchecked…
17) Missouri hospitals now becoming overwhelmed. Diversions of #COVID19 patients now begun.
18) Missouri hospitalization has now hit the tipping point with #DeltaVariant after rising for a month.
19) US has finally begun seeing the #DeltaVariant waves cresting ashore as cases rise nationally for the first time in months.
20) “are we ready for another pandemic?” … half of Americans 🇺🇸: No.
21) here we go… for the “it’s not real until hospitalizations rise” crowd out there… send this to them.
22) Given what Australia 🇦🇺 is reporting of both “fleeting” 5-10 second exposure transmission of #DeltaVariant and the near 100% household transmission, 4x higher than the 25% before, is really a surprise Delta is taking over?

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
2 Jul
Bad news for UK 🇬🇧 and the rest of the world… hospitalizations in England due to #DeltaVariant are now accelerating upward even faster than before, according to new data compiled by @COVID19actuary. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 is ~half fully #vaccinated—UK planning to start 3rd dose in Sept for age 50+. Image
2) Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all increasing in the UK. Scotland cases now at all time record high too. Israel cases and hospitalizations up too.
3) England is also responsible for an outbreak in Scotland among soccer fans who traveled to London. Again all #DeltaVariant
Read 18 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
2 Jul
Overwhelmed hospitals are back—a hospital in Springfield (Missouri) now on “#COVID19 diversion", sending hospitalized patients to other cities and nearby state, as #DeltaVariant gains momentum where large swaths of residents aren’t vaccinated.
kmov.com/news/hospital-…
2) said four Cox hospital patients recently were transferred to BJC HealthCare, a St. Louis-area health system with 14 hospitals including Barnes-Jewish, a big teaching hospital tied to Washington University’s medical school.
3) Another four Cox patients have been transferred to St. Luke’s Health System in Kansas City, Edwards said.
Edwards cited internal Cox data showing 47 COVID patients transferred into Cox facilities from June 1 to 21,
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
1 Jul
FACT: A virus that is less lethal than before (eg vaccination), or infects a lower risk (younger) population can actually *kill & maim more victims* if it’s more contagious (#DeltaVariant) or allowed to spread to more people (e.g. ⚽️ games), than if a virus is merely more lethal.
2) This above statement is proven by epidemiology models. Let’s not wait to “find out for ourselves” and then pretend “nobody could have predicted this” later when it’s too late.
3) Most of these people infected at #EuroCup were young. Most will not be hospitalized. But many will be hospitalized and transmit to others who are more vulnerable. And in the end it’ll maim more people than a less contagious virus that is merely more fatal.
Read 10 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
30 Jun
BREAKING—A **third #COVID19 vaccine** will be offered to half of UK 🇬🇧 residents with a flu jab starting September to reduce need for restrictions this winter. All residents age 50+over will be urged to get another shot to ensure immunity does not wane. 🧵
thetimes.co.uk/article/half-o…
2) A third dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine can boost immune protection. In new trial, 3rd dose of AZ vaccine nearly seven months after first two shots—participants reported higher antibody levels after the third dose than a month after the second. #COVID19 nytimes.com/2021/06/28/wor…
3) The new data, detailed in a preprint manuscript that has not yet been peer reviewed, came from 90 study volunteers in 🇬🇧 who were among the earliest to receive shots in clinical trial last year. This past March, they were given third dose, roughly 30 weeks after their second.
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
30 Jun
Heard an insane quote—On 4th of July: “If you're an unvaccinated individual, try to be around as many vaccinated persons as you can be”, said a scientist that I won’t name.

Ummm, what? Just like Singapore #DeltaVariant outbreak? 21 transmissions from a green (vaxxed) circle.
2) How about telling unvaccinated people to MASK instead? Or stay away from other people period until they are fully vaccinated? Or else it’ll only drive this…
3) Or how about tell unvaccinated people to get travel insurance ?
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
30 Jun
What does it say when @RoyalCaribbean asks unvaccinated guests to get travel insurance for Florida 🛳 cruises? It means they know what will likely happen. #COVID19 reut.rs/3x4Z6qv
2) Royal Caribbean International said on Tuesday it would require unvaccinated guests over 12 years of age traveling from Florida to show proof of insurance that covers COVID-19 related medical expenses, quarantine and evacuation.
3) The new policy comes after two unvaccinated teenagers tested positive on its Adventure of the Seas ship last week and two others were infected on Celebrity Millennium earlier this month.
Read 6 tweets

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