Thread by @DrEricDing

FACT: A virus that is less lethal than before (eg vaccination), or infects a lower risk (younger) population can actually *kill & maim more victims* if it’s more contagious (#DeltaVariant) or allowed to spread to more people (e.g. ⚽️ games), than if a virus is merely more lethal.

2) This above statement is proven by epidemiology models. Let’s not wait to “find out for ourselves” and then pretend “nobody could have predicted this” later when it’s too late.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1410529154978701319

3) Most of these people infected at #EuroCup were young. Most will not be hospitalized. But many will be hospitalized and transmit to others who are more vulnerable. And in the end it’ll maim more people than a less contagious virus that is merely more fatal.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1410239252076630018

4) Another simpler way to say this is: "a small % of a much big number is still a big number". And #DeltaVariant’s leaps and bounds faster transmission means that that denominator of total exposed will be much much bigger.

5) the Singapore Delta outbreak proves that vaccinated still transmitted. In this #DeltaVariant cluster alone, among 29 vaccinated who got infected, 21 transmissions events were between vaccinated-to-vaccinated or vaccinated-to-unvaccinated. That’s a lot! covid.viz.sg

6) In case anyone wanted to understand how a more contagious virus can be actually worse…

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1343567425107881986

7) I would say fleeting 5-10 transmission makes #DeltaVariant kinda sorta maybe slightly more contagious than before.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1408078811644768258

8) I see a lot of people dismissing #COVID19 in young people. But remember the principle that a small % harmed on a larger number of people will yield greater total number people harmed. And it’s not just deaths and hospitalization- it’s also #LongCovid effects on next generation

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1410533722395447298

9) mortality is rising in Alberta Canada 🇨🇦 now too, where it is 35% #DeltaVariant. Canada is one of the most 1-dose vaccinated countries in the world too. #DeltaVariant practically doesn’t care about 1 dose.

https://twitter.com/ZiadFazel/status/1410750513839153152

10) hospitalizations continue to surge even faster in the UK.

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1410622822599254017