The Adams campaign memo that they put out today to suggest they're gonna win is interesting and worth a read, especially if you think Garcia is strongly favored.
scribd.com/document/51382…
scribd.com/document/51382…
Point #1 seems largely correct, assuming the 'preliminarily valid absentee ballots' number they cite is accurate. It's interesting that the rejection rate is so high, but IIRC that may have happened in past NYC elections as well.
Garcia needs to win absentees by about 15.67%.
Garcia needs to win absentees by about 15.67%.
I do feel like point #2 ("VBM ballots come from Assembly Districts that favor Eric") can be somewhat of a statistical illusion - Adams' large 1st round margin gets reduced by RCV. There's also a demographic aspect here that can't be captured by geography.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1410424337853779968?s=20
Point #3 is interesting as well. I agree that Wiley is highly unlikely to make the final round.
Absentees could be better for Yang because of Queens, and since Wiley voters are more likely than Yang voters to favor Garcia, this could reduce Garcia's absentee advantage somewhat.
Absentees could be better for Yang because of Queens, and since Wiley voters are more likely than Yang voters to favor Garcia, this could reduce Garcia's absentee advantage somewhat.
Here's where I see the race:
- Garcia is likely to remain ahead of Wiley to reach the final round.
- Garcia should gain ground because of absentee votes, but the question is if it's enough (needs margin of ~16%).
- It'll be pretty close either way and either candidate could win.
- Garcia is likely to remain ahead of Wiley to reach the final round.
- Garcia should gain ground because of absentee votes, but the question is if it's enough (needs margin of ~16%).
- It'll be pretty close either way and either candidate could win.
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