(1) #SurfsideBuildingCollapse Thread #5

Well, 5 threads about an event is my personal record & that's going to be broken. I will start a "directory thread" linking them all.

Today, 7/1/2021 marks a turning point for Surfside in several ways.
(2) I predicted last night that the rescue operation was about to become a recovery operation. Today, safety sensors activated & crews had to reluctantly pull back. This happened in the 9/11 recovery op & in the NZ situation. All similar types of events, of different sizes.
(3) Further, the fire chief said that a female voice had been heard in the initial hours after the collapse but they couldn't find or reach her.

This happened in NZ, too. Several people survived the collapse only to die while still trapped. One had been on phone to her husband.
(4) It's extremely heartbreaking when this happens. But there is no way to reach them through tons and tons of rubble, that would likely kill some of the rescuers & them. Plus, you can't be sure you're not accidentally pushing a slab of something into another survivor somewhere.
(5) That's why prevention is everything.

And why building codes must be rigorous AND strictly enforced, everywhere, all the time.

There WILL be a major earthquake in California eventually. And there is also risk of it (and tsunami) in the four other Pacific states.
(6) I can predict with 100% accuracy that in the "not if but when" major earthquake, some buildings in CA, esp. in LA and San Fran, will fail and will take lives.

The need to carefully review structural safety of infrastructure after Surfside pertains to the entire country.
(7) Smaller earthquakes are possible in many other states.

For example, in Richmond, VA in 2011 there was a rare 5.8, that caused minor damage to the National Cathedral in Washington, DC. nbcwashington.com/news/local/8-y…

You can find info about your state here: usgs.gov/natural-hazard…
(8) Americans should demand that certain public buildings are prioritized for risk assessment and mitigation.

It's one thing to choose to avoid an unsafe building, it's quite another to be compelled to use one eg to appear in court, or carry out some other govt activity.
(9) Which reminds me, if you live an earthquake prone place like Los Angeles, file this away in your mind:

If you survive an earthquake that damages structures but doesn't take any or many lives, insist on proper risk assessment of buildings, bridges, roads etc. Stay skeptical.
(10) In my earlier Surfside threads I detail what went wrong in Christchurch, NZ from 2010 to 2011.

Assessments were not sufficiently thorough but we as the public didn't know that & assumed the city council had ensured that robust assessments were done.

It caused 115 deaths.
(11) Current evidence suggests that in Surfside a lack of proper management decision making by the building owners' board and a lack of proper monitoring by the (very small) local city council has caused 165 deaths.

It must never happen again in the US.
(12) The multi-agency response to Surfside has been exceptional. Hundreds of rescue and other workers have worked around the clock in dangerous & uncomfortable conditions. There is a huge task ahead to clear the site.

Local, state & federal government have worked well together.
(13) I put a photo of President Biden and FL Gov Ron DeSantis at the start of this thread because it's a photo that says so much about the USA in 2021.

DeSantis has spoken very highly of Biden today. This is good, and it doesn't surprise me.
(14) The governor and the POTUS are smart enough to put partisanship to the side regarding Surfside & focus on saving lives & doing all they can to assist the living.

Without knowing about the name of it they are following the #NoPoliticsOnTheBoat doctrine from 2017.

(15) A few days ago I expanded on #NoPoliticsOnTheBoat by saying:

"How about when we're not on the boat, we talk politics if we want, and when we're on the boat, we don't. It would be a help to those who never asked to wind up on the boat."
(16) At the start of the pandemic I knew that hurricanes etc would strain already exhausted & distressed folk who may lack the supplies & equipment to cope like they normally wd.

From observing other countries, I know that come fall, there cd be new Covid waves in some states.
(17) Yes, vaccines and other measures mean that overall the summer looks good in the US. No one can predict what future variants might be like. Hopefully they are like Delta in that existing vaccines will provide a lot of protection.

Mental health is extremely important now.
(18) Interestingly, in the year after the big earthquake in NZ in 2011, Christchurch residents were much less likely to self-harm. It is thought that the community spirit and camaraderie helped people cope well enough despite ongoing aftershocks & other stressors.
(19) I'm putting this in every Surfside thread now.

A dedicated free 24/7 professionally staffed Disaster @distressline exists.

They serve anyone in the US who needs help coping with any current or previous disaster. And that, AFAIK, includes the pandemic, too.
(20) I've said from Day 1 that Morabito Consultants are not to blame for the fact their client failed to follow their report's recommendations & the city failed to notice that.

MC did far better at post-event PR, too. Full transparency since Day 1. Made the report public etc.
(21) In NZ, it was later discovered in the official investigation that in the (1981) CTV building's construction, corners were cut and the concrete "recipe" was changed. Rebar was not properly tied at the joints. The engineer who signed off on it had faked his degree.
(22) It was a bizarre set of circumstances. Surfside was built in 1986, just 5 years after the doomed CTV building in NZ, using a similar structural design.

I strongly recommend Americans contact NZ experts (& families of the dead, too.) We want our lessons to be learned about.
(23) The engineering and scientific communities in one country usually know who to contact in another country. In addition, the NZ embassy in DC can hook you up with the right people.

The ASEAN nations are all in the Pacific "ring of fire" for earthquakes, tsunami & volcano.
(24) To clarify, a structurally at risk building can fail in an earthquake. But if the inherent flaws are bad enough, it can fail just from the time elapsed and corrosion or strain on the building from its environment.

It was possible to know in advance of the danger.
(25) The residents, visitors, and neighbors of this building in Surfside didn't know what they didn't know.

For them, it was an unknown unknown, as Rumsfeld would say.

Make it a known unknown then a known known, in future.
(26) Good to see this prompt action.

I have been predicting this since my Thread #1 at the start of the Surfside crisis.

It's NOT unprecedented when you look beyond the US, to NZ in particular. Just 10 years ago.

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More from @FreedomFriesInc

3 Jul
(1) THREADS DIRECTORY: #SurfsideBuildingCollapse.

I'm here to tell you about New Zealand's response to losing 115 people in the very similar 2011 #CTVBuilding collapse.

I write about emergencies in thread form, for ease of navigation. Only a few end up needing a directory. ImageImage
(2) I'm not an American but one day I might be. I love the country. NZ & the US are old friends & we should get on better than we do.

Anyway, my first #Surfside thread was limited to concern for those directly affected. Aimed to be free of controversy:

(3) Thread #2 saw me express some righteous anger about those who allow disasters to happen through their own incompetence and recklessness.

It turns out, channeling emotion into showing care for others makes one feel better for at least a while.

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Esp. if it has been in place for 12 years.
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(1) A case like this is directly relevant to the critical race theory (CRT) debate and whether a black kid is more likely to be killed by a cop than a white kid.

Let me tell you about the excuses used in MAGA world.

(2) If you read the Vice article above, you'll see several points of information from the family's side of the story.

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Supporters of the black lives matter movement use cases like this one to illustrate their point. As they should, IMO.
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27 Jun
(1) #SurfsideBuildingCollapse Thread #4

Welcome to my stream of consciousness tweeting about active emergency management events. I am an EM geek with professional and (sadly) personal experience to share.

Link to earlier Surfside threads:
(2) To recap, I was in the city of Christchurch, New Zealand on 2/22/2011 when the lack of a quality engineering report killed 115 people.

An earthquake triggered the collapse BUT obvious damage from an earlier, smaller quake had been missed by local officials.
(3) This point is highly relevant to the engineering reporting process getting underway in Florida after Surfside.

Like in Christchurch, building inspectors & officials are hastily designing a reporting system that is not sufficiently geared to find which buildings are at risk.
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Liberals have been way more reasonable toward me than MAGA folk have, as expected.
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