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Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
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3 Jul, 6 tweets, 3 min read
(1) THREADS DIRECTORY: #SurfsideBuildingCollapse.

I'm here to tell you about New Zealand's response to losing 115 people in the very similar 2011 #CTVBuilding collapse.

I write about emergencies in thread form, for ease of navigation. Only a few end up needing a directory.
(2) I'm not an American but one day I might be. I love the country. NZ & the US are old friends & we should get on better than we do.

Anyway, my first #Surfside thread was limited to concern for those directly affected. Aimed to be free of controversy:

(3) Thread #2 saw me express some righteous anger about those who allow disasters to happen through their own incompetence and recklessness.

It turns out, channeling emotion into showing care for others makes one feel better for at least a while.

(4) Thread #3 is long-ish, and varied:

(5) Thread #4:

(6) Thread #5:

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Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
2 Jul
(1) Thread #1: #HurricaneElsa

Last night I almost started this thread as TS #Elsa and I'm glad I didn't.

Now a Cat 1 hurricane, and it's too early to predict much else for FL and surrounding states.

(2) It would be a mistake to treat Hurricane Elsa as if she's a sweet little princess and you can safely #LetItGo.

Even a tropical storm can be deadly like a hurricane.
(3) I've been watching the developing Elsa for about 10 days. Current forecast has the system at hurricane strength through the Caribbean. Fortunately for the USVI and Puerto Rico, passing well to the South of them.

Forecast to become a TS before reaching Florida mid-week.
Read 24 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
1 Jul
(1) #SurfsideBuildingCollapse Thread #5

Well, 5 threads about an event is my personal record & that's going to be broken. I will start a "directory thread" linking them all.

Today, 7/1/2021 marks a turning point for Surfside in several ways.
(2) I predicted last night that the rescue operation was about to become a recovery operation. Today, safety sensors activated & crews had to reluctantly pull back. This happened in the 9/11 recovery op & in the NZ situation. All similar types of events, of different sizes.
(3) Further, the fire chief said that a female voice had been heard in the initial hours after the collapse but they couldn't find or reach her.

This happened in NZ, too. Several people survived the collapse only to die while still trapped. One had been on phone to her husband.
Read 26 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
1 Jul
(1) I cannot think of a mental health diagnosis that would require a previously mentally competent 39 year old woman to have an IUD in her body as contraception, apparently against her wishes. Note I said apparently, because...
(2) I do not have the full information about Britney Spears' case. In the US, as in NZ (where my legal knowledge is greater), there appear to be two types of conservatorship - personal and financial. This is as it should be.

I was concerned to hear about the IUD.
(3) I can understand that a conservator (whether family or professional) might think Britney's health is better served by having an IUD. But such measures are among the most controversial decisions a conservator or court can ever make.

Esp. if it has been in place for 12 years.
Read 21 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
29 Jun
(1) A case like this is directly relevant to the critical race theory (CRT) debate and whether a black kid is more likely to be killed by a cop than a white kid.

Let me tell you about the excuses used in MAGA world.

vice.com/en/article/5db…
(2) If you read the Vice article above, you'll see several points of information from the family's side of the story.

You'll also see that the PD has not yet released detailed info, while they do their job collating it. As they should, every time.
(3) Every one of the family's complaints is the same as you'll usually hear from any family, regardless of race.

Supporters of the black lives matter movement use cases like this one to illustrate their point. As they should, IMO.
Read 20 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
27 Jun
(1) #SurfsideBuildingCollapse Thread #4

Welcome to my stream of consciousness tweeting about active emergency management events. I am an EM geek with professional and (sadly) personal experience to share.

Link to earlier Surfside threads:
(2) To recap, I was in the city of Christchurch, New Zealand on 2/22/2011 when the lack of a quality engineering report killed 115 people.

An earthquake triggered the collapse BUT obvious damage from an earlier, smaller quake had been missed by local officials.
(3) This point is highly relevant to the engineering reporting process getting underway in Florida after Surfside.

Like in Christchurch, building inspectors & officials are hastily designing a reporting system that is not sufficiently geared to find which buildings are at risk.
Read 17 tweets
Hurricane Watcher - Reality-Based Community Member Profile picture
27 Jun
(1) Many events of the past 18 months contributed to my decision to become (proudly) #ExMAGA & #NeverTrump after >4 years in the cult. The pandemic was the main reason. 1/6 was the last straw.

Liberals have been way more reasonable toward me than MAGA folk have, as expected.
(2) The thread linked above is an example of those on the left who are reasonable and can be reasoned with.

We don't have to agree on every policy issue. We already agree on the non-negotiables, like not rioting inside the seat of the federal government, for example.
(3) Once the rampant lawlessness line was crossed in such a large scale and obviously violent way, it became impossible for me to discuss policy issues with people in the MAGA crowd. If you condone 1/6 (by trying to play it down) then we can't discuss anything. There's no point.
Read 5 tweets

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