Thread by @FreedomFriesInc

(1) Thread #1: #HurricaneElsa

Last night I almost started this thread as TS #Elsa and I'm glad I didn't.

Now a Cat 1 hurricane, and it's too early to predict much else for FL and surrounding states.

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1411026508857159681

(2) It would be a mistake to treat Hurricane Elsa as if she's a sweet little princess and you can safely #LetItGo.

Even a tropical storm can be deadly like a hurricane.

(3) I've been watching the developing Elsa for about 10 days. Current forecast has the system at hurricane strength through the Caribbean. Fortunately for the USVI and Puerto Rico, passing well to the South of them.

Forecast to become a TS before reaching Florida mid-week.

(4) The distant part of the forecast cone has been turning to the East for a few days. ie from MS/AL to GA/SC.

Always remember that "weakening" from Cat 1 to TS doesn't mean you're safe. In particular, rain levels can be heavy, & some areas may have sodden ground already.

(5) In the recent TS #Claudette in the US, lives were lost due to falling trees, & driving through flooding.

So look at the trees around you. Unless they're small, trim, fell, or evacuate. And always #TurnAroundDontDrown.

On foot, 6' & in a vehicle, 12' of water can kill.

(6) I am esp. pleased to report that yesterday the local, state & federal agencies responding to the Surfside Building Collapse confirmed they have been factoring in hurricane #Elsa to ensure folk are prepared and supported in both emergency situations. The unity is great to see.

(7) Anyone visiting or planning to visit various Caribbean islands this week should reconsider. It's not fun to be there during a Cat 1 hurricane or in the aftermath.

The other US zones ie Eastern and Central Pacific are hurricane free for the next 5 days (and probably longer.)

(8) A little note on Covid vaccinations. I know the vax rate in the South is lower than elsewhere. Despite the difficulty I urge you to talk with family and friends who could become hurricane-affected. Getting a vaccine during & right after one is not impossible, but not as easy.

(9) The Covid situation in the US may seem deceptively under control at present. a) It's summer, and b) the more contagious Delta Variant and probable next variant have yet to reach widespread high levels there. Please learn from other countries. The pandemic is not over yet.

(10) #GetVaccinated - especially if a hurricane is forecast for your state.

And now I will take a short break, to really give those anti-vaxxer replies a chance to build up.😉

cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…

(11) Update: Tropical Storm #Elsa 8pm ET Saturday July 3.

Max sustained winds 70mph (75 is the Cat 1 Hurricane threshold).

Forecast to remain a TS (>39mph) long after it starts skirting the US East Coast, as far North as NJ. IMO the NE states may be impacted later, too.

(12) Correction to my earlier comment that "on foot, 6' & in a vehicle, 12' of water can kill." I think in metric, not imperial for most things.

Floodwaters that are 6" (ie 6 inches or 15cm) deep can be deep enough to sweep of your feet. I was surprised to learn this.

Also:

(13) Floodwaters of 12" (ie 12 inches, or 1 foot, or 30cm) can be enough to sweep a car or similar vehicle away.

When people say #TurnAroundDontDrown they mean it.

One of the Hurricane Harvey deaths was a Houston police officer who drove through flooding to start his shift.

(14) If a cop in a hurricane prone city can make a bad call like that & die, then you or me can too.

Never walk or drive through floodwaters. You can't see obstacles or holes, and it is full of bacteria and hazardous chemicals.

Also, check you have proper flood insurance.

(15) In 2017 in Houston especially, a lot of homeowners found out the hard way to read the fine print on your insurance policies (or pay a lawyer to.)

As I understand it, flooding coverage is not a given. You may have to purchase it separately.

Flooding is on the increase.

(16) Flooding is on the increase worldwide. It's not all caused by climate change. (And the exact cause of climate change is not agreed by everyone. Almost everyone agrees that it is happening, though.)

Land use patterns can exacerbate flooding.

(20) Houston is a prime example of the way that human decisions about how to use land and natural resources can exacerbate flooding and other disasters, like building collapses.

We had to (pretty much) live beside rivers when we hadn't invented railroads or motor vehicles.

(21) Some degree of river-taming is necessary. But in many cities we have gone too far. The river catchment area can no longer function in a natural way.

For Houston to reduce the severity of future biblical level rain events, it has to release reservoir water quickly.

(22) But Houston is located where the natural environment is not ideally conducive to early warnings of major hurricanes. Quickly developing but slow moving Hurricane Harvey was a classic storm for that region.

Elsa is the opposite, btw.

(23) IMO Houston should copy New Orleans and work toward even better hurricane prepping protocols so that reservoirs can be emptied as early as possible. New Orleans is pretty good now with its flood management infrastructure. Hasn't really been hurricane-tested yet.

(24) The flood insurance issue is what reminded me about Hurricane Harvey in Houston. Because many homes that were up-river from reservoirs got flooded, and homeowners were caught out.

The decisions to allow that flooding to occur were necessary for the city down-river.

(25) Cliff's Notes version: Stop assuming this or that about life.

Don't assume the reservoir will be emptied to stop your home from getting flooded. It might not be possible at the time.

Extreme weather events are increasing. No doubt about it.

(26) Instead of debating the issue, our time is better spent doing things that reduce the impact on ourselves.

Like looking into your own flooding risk and your financial mitigation options.

Good resources here: ready.gov/financial-prep…

(27) Here is my #Elsa Thread #2:

https://twitter.com/FreedomFriesInc/status/1411501235518140416