Thread by @rgoodlaw

Will Weisselberg flip?

A lot bearing down on him if he doesn't.

Read this sober analysis by former IRS Criminal Investigation supervisory special agent.

Plus includes a valuable comment by former Chief Assistant in Manhattan DA Office @DanielRAlonso.

justsecurity.org/77312/allen-we…

2. Key: How much jail time does #Weisselberg face if

A. pleads and cooperates
vs.
B. convicted after trial

I asked the oracle, @DanielRAlonso, who said:

for A: "excellent chance of a probationary sentence"
for B: "very likely a term of 1-3 but more likely 2-6 years or higher"

3. Former IRS special agent, Sheil, put it this way:

(1) fight charges and risk conviction after trial (most likely 2-6 years or higher)

(2) plead guilty but don't cooperate (likely as much as a year)

(3) plead guilty and cooperate (likely probation and payment of civil fines)

4. Another factor:

"Prosecutors conspicuously made references throughout the indictment to other Weisselberg family members."

Risks of charges against them?

"He would be well advised to avoid those risks especially after the prosecutors have now issued these public signals."

5. Another factor:

"Superseding indictments would seriously raise the sentencing guidelines baseline, and the enticing plea deal available to Allen now would vanish. ... He’d be well advised to plea and cooperate now than after any such indictment is entered."

6/6. Not as much a factor:

The prospect of federal charges being brought in addition for the tax crimes alleged in the indictment.

Sheil writes: "It would be ordinary practice for the IRS to let the state prosecution stand for the individual’s criminal liability."

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