Thread by @ryanmatsumoto1

Gonna take a moment to revisit this scatterplot I made a while back and explain why it probably *overstates* Garcia's strength with absentee voters.

There are some statistical / demographic quirks that make this interesting.

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https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1408079937123217410?s=20

Initially I figured that Assembly Districts would be a good comparison point because they are supposed to be evenly populated.

But there are actually *gigantic* turnout differences by Assembly District.

ADs 52/57/67 have 30k+ votes while ADs 47/49/62 have <6.5k votes.

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Turnout by Assembly District varies *greatly* in the NYC Mayor race because of factors like race, education, income, partisanship, and immigration.

In a highly diverse place like NYC, these factors can create pretty big turnout differences.

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This ends up mattering because Garcia tends to do very well in vote-rich Assembly Districts in Manhattan.

This explains much of why these Assembly Districts *also* have a high *raw* number of absentee ballots (the dots in the upper-right of my original scatterplot above).

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If we instead look at *absentees as a percent of total votes* instead of *raw number of absentee ballots*, we find that the relationship between absentee voting and Garcia vote share is much more muted than the original scatterplot may have suggested.

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In the end, I still expect Garcia to do better with absentee voters than in-person voters.

But I also don't expect her to win absentee voters in a landslide (like 30 or 40 points) in the final round of RCV. The differential won't be like Pennsylvania 2020 or Georgia 2020.

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Revisiting this absentee analysis as well as some other models people have made has made me less bullish on Garcia than I was a few days ago.

At this point I'd say it's a Toss-Up or Tilts Adams.

Though I may change my mind again if we get more information!

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