πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺπŸ’‰ update 5 July & review calendar week 26
Slowdown continues - but ?-mark over corporate doctors
With the figures reported for Friday & the weekend once again down on the previous week (b4 revisions), the 7-day ave continues to slide, and is now only a touch above 700k.
1/5
The sharp fall-off in 2nd πŸ’‰is barely offset by a renewed increase in 1st doses.
Last week saw the first decline under 5m doses for 4 weeks. (Revisions might be enough to change this, & see 4&5/5.)
On the face of it, πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ campaign is returning to May vax rates.
2/5
With vaccine supply still buoyant, the share of delivered doses that have been injected in upper arms falls substantially (by 1%point) to 87.3%.
This means 11 1/4 million doses are unused - or, perhaps better, unaccounted for.
3/5
For, as previous posts have noted, πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ vax data reporting leaves questions unanswered. In particular the coverage of corporate doctors is patchy.
Last Wednesday @rki_de reported rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… 564k shots by corporate doctors. But they have received around 2 million.
4/5
Almost certainly they've administered many more, maybe 1 million more. What is not clear is whether the additional shots have been reported elsewhere (& so are in the totals). If not, there could be substantial upward revisions.
Hopefully @rki_de will clarify by Wednesday.
5/5

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More from @AndrewWattEU

5 Jul
As πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺπŸ’‰campaign loses some momentum, an anxious question arises: is this due to greater than expected resistence to getting a jab? And will vax rates that could realistically be achieved be enough to limit the public health risks?
@rki_de looks at both Qs & ... is confident
1/
There is a lot of detail in the report, but the key message on needed vax rates - in most cases: 2 shots - is:
90% coverage of the <60's is needed.
For 12-59 year-olds there is a huge difference btwn 65 & 75% coverage. Above that the effect is smaller.
(>12 assumed = 0).
2/
For a baseline scenario (a set of plausible assumptions including seasonality, role of delta etc.) the fig. shows the modelled incidence (cases /100.000pop, 7 days). Above 85% the additional protective effect is marginal. The figure for hospitalsiations has the same form.
3/
Read 9 tweets
5 Jul
.@SDullien & @KatjaRietzler have a paper out showing the scope for expansionary fiscal policy in Germany if the debt brake - which, stupidly, has constitutional status - were relaxed in various ways.
As this is relevant for the πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί debate, a few key takeaways in EN.
1/7
Keeping it simple, we'll just look at the total additional nominal fiscal marge de manouvre for the period 2023-30 (without feedback effects) opened up by 5 options.
2/7
Setting up a state-owned entity to borrow 1% of GDP for public investment a year would not need a change in the πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ constitution. It creates fiscal space of €56bn with unchanged EU fiscal rules. If these are relaxed in the direction of a golden rule, that space quadruples.
3/7
Read 7 tweets
2 Jun
The EU Commission @PaoloGentiloni has just issued a communication on EU economic policy and its coordination - the fiscal rules and those governing so-called macroeconomic imbalances.
ec.europa.eu/info/system/fi…
Mostly light, but some shadows.
Thread πŸ‘‡
1/n
I'll look quickly in turn at
- Next Generation EU
- the (suspension of the) fiscal rules
- monitoring of macro imbalances

2/n
NGEU
Not much new here. COM welcomes the fact that all MS have approved the increase in own resources & almost all have submitted recovery plans. The borrowing-and-disbursing process can begin following COM plan-approval and endorsement by the Council (within 1 month).
3/n
Read 15 tweets
2 Jun
It is great to see #Vietnam moving up the value chain and developing its own tech, selling it in foreign markets.
OTOH selling hi-end EVs to Americans seems an odd focus. And not just for the reason cited here: it might be a costly failure.
1/4
πŸ‡»πŸ‡³ ppl currently rely overwhelmingly on motorbikes for private transport, but cars are increasingly common as the middle class expands . Trade agreements are also leading to cuts in hi import duties. Congestion and air pollution are huge problems in urban areas.
2/4
At the same timeπŸ‡»πŸ‡³ has gr8 potential for solar and wind power.
It could become a world leader in electric motorbikes & small affordable EVs. These cd be exported but wd more importantly address pressing domestic economic & ecological development issues.
3/4
Read 4 tweets
1 Jun
imk-boeckler.de/de/faust-detai…
@SDullien and I have updated our vacccination forecast for Germany first published in March.
Developments since then require some adjustments, but basically πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ remains on track ... with some risks.
Short thread on the main findings πŸ‘‡
1/
Our mid-March forecast was that 75% of German adults (52.5m people) could be completely vaccinated by end of July. At the time this was highly controversial, but the marked acceleration in vaccinations since has largely borne out the prediction.
2/ ImageImage
Overall the delivery schedules are such that dispensing the requisite number of shots by end July shld not be a problem.
There are two problems, however: the gap between 1st and 2nd shots & issues relating to the vector-based vaccines from #Astrazeneca and #JohnsonandJohnson
3/
Read 10 tweets
28 Apr
Completely agree with @sjwrenlewis economic analysis of EU fiscal rules. Fiscal policy should be about macroeconomic stabilisation not government-debt limitation. Happily, I disagree somewhat on the politics: Feasible reforms cd get us nearer where we need to be.
Thread πŸ‘‡
1/19
The basic economic insight is:
β€œ<when> the economy is growing rapidly relative to the EU average individual countries need to contract fiscal policy, and in relative downturns … need fiscal stimulus <because> monetary union takes away effective national monetary policy.”
2/19
I'd just make more explicit what is implicit: countries in the former (latter) situation tend to have above-average (below-average) inflation, thus below (above) ave real interest rates, a loss (gain) in competitiveness & thus a tendency to current acc. deficits (surpluses).
3/19
Read 19 tweets

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