Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
@juliette_io
Jul 6, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Outbreaks compared
🗓️Day 20

For log-scale super fans (and the rest of us) - charts comparing biggest #covid19aus outbreaks

1/6 ... 7 biggest outbreaks in NSW / VIC
👙Bondi - blue (330 cases)

covid19data.com.au/compare-outbre…

#covidsydney #COVID19 #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Vic
2/6 ... What does it look like on a log scale?

Useful bc it doesn't only show us whether cases are growing, but how quickly they're growing

#FlattenTheCurve
3/6 ... 'Hold the line': 3 biggest outbreaks

Shows daily cases and 7-day averages on log scale

Useful because it shows whether we are 'holding the line' against daily growth in cases

👙Bondi - blue
🌊VIC 2nd wave - light grey (took off around now)
🍺Crossroads - dark grey
4/6 ... 🔎Unlinked cases in NSW outbreaks

👙Bondi: 23 (+2 today)
☀️Avalon: 7
🍺Crossroads: 15
5/6 ... 🤧All local cases in NSW outbreaks

👙Bondi: 330 (+18 today)
☀️Avalon: 190
🍺Crossroads: 186

(Remember, these numbers refer to 'day 20' for each outbreak)
6/6 ... And here it is on log scale

The intervals are not very easy to see on this chart

But as an indicator, Bondi outbreak took about 5 days to double from 100 to 200. 5 days later, we're at 330. So doubling rate slowing.*
All live charts are embeddable and released under CC4.0.

See new page:
covid19data.com.au/compare-outbre…
*Footnote - our covid literacy is getting better all the time, so we understand these are fairly crude indicators, and the stories and factors behind these numbers are just as important

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Juliette O'Brien

Juliette O'Brien Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @juliette_io

Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
Jan 4, 2022
How many people are in NSW hospitals *with* Covid but not *for* Covid?

The Daily Telegraph says it's 40-50% of patients

I have data from 2 major hospitals that tell a different story

🧵 1/9

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #COVID19
I asked clinicians from 4 big hospitals for an analysis of a random sample of currently admitted Covid patients

2 could help🙏

Both had very similar breakdowns:

~76-80% of Covid patients admitted *for* Covid illness
~20-24% admitted *with* Covid but for something else

2/9
Some more detail on the samples ...

Hospital A: n=21
Hospital B: n=101

Both samples were randomly selected and statistically significant given total Covid patients at each facility

3/9
Read 11 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
Dec 31, 2021
🚨 Those NSW hospitalisation numbers are >24 hrs behind and the situation is changing fast

ICU / ventilation increases this morning:

63 / 19 - NSW Health tweet 1
69 / 19 - NSW Health tweet 2
78 / 24 - Patient Flow Portal early AM
80 / 28 - PFP 10.20AM

#covid19aus #COVID19nsw
So from 8PM last night to mid-morning today ...

ICU patients have increased 16%
Ventilated patients have increased 47%

It is a huge jump

Both Omicron and Delta are circulating widely and feeding these numbers

*There are people with both variants in ICU*
We have little idea how much Covid there is in NSW, let alone the Delta v Omicron split

We do not know what hospitalisation / ICU / ventilation rates to expect

The best we can do is report on what is happening *right now*. Not what happened more than 24 hours ago
Read 6 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
Dec 29, 2021
NSW has deflected responsibility for the massive pressures on the pathology system by focusing public attention on QLD's tourism testing

But in fact sheer case load is also a major factor affecting the testing system's capacity

Quick🧵1/6

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #CovidTesting
Prof Dwyer has confirmed NSW pathology labs use the 'pooling' process outlined by the Reddit thread

Pooling is supposed to help the system process large numbers of samples

Eg. Test 4 samples as a group

Negative? Move on

Positive? Go back and test each sample individually

2/6
Prof Dwyer said today:

'The process of having to go back and retest positive pools takes a lot of time'

and

'The ability to pool is limited by how common the disease is in the community'

So the pooling process is directly affected by more cases / higher positivity rate

3/6
Read 7 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
Oct 12, 2021
🧭 NSW LGAs late-night monster wrap 👻

NSW as 3 diff outbreaks:

1. Southwest / West Syd: +162 = 4414 (-51%)
2. Rest of Greater Sydney: +50 = 1513 (-56%)
3. Regional NSW: +137 = 3064 (+36%)

Data: Cases today = 14-day sum (% 14-day change)

LGA details 👇
#covid19nsw #covid19aus
Regional NSW -

📍 Central Coast: +20 = 410 (10%) 😏

📍 Illawarra Shoalhaven: +31=851 (-3%) 😃

Kiama: +0 = 3 (-84%)
Shellharbour: +14 = 153 (-21%)
Shoalhaven: +3 = 121 (55%)
Wollongong: +14 = 574 (-2%)
📍 Far West: +1=46 (-45%) 🤗

Broken Hill: +1=30 (-45%)
Wentworth: +0=16
Read 16 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
Oct 12, 2021
🧭 VIC LGAs late-night monster wrap 👻

VIC as 3 different outbreaks:

1. North/West Metro: +867 = 13,050 (+82%)
2. Rest of Metro: +479 = 6,670 (+352%)
3. Regional VIC: +110 = 1,190 (+441%)

Data: Cases today = 14-day sum (% 14-day change)

LGA details👇

#COVID19Vic #covid19aus
1. North/West Metro (original growth areas) -

📍 North Melbourne: +511=7807 (50%) 😏

Banyule: +24=325 (102%)
Darebin: +53=686 (144%)
Hume: +203=3589 (17%) 👏
Moreland: +63=1135 (46%)
Nillumbik: +6=85 (325%)
Whittlesea: +162=1987 (116%)
📍 West Melbourne: +356=5243 (170%) 😒

Brimbank: +99=1345 (209%)
Hobsons Bay: +25=352 (72%)
Maribyrnong: +30=405 (426%)
Melton: +80=1277 (239%)
Moonee Valley: +35=522 (129%)
Wyndham: +87=1342 (115%)
Read 13 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
Oct 7, 2021
Waiting to hear back from @healthgovau media about Commonwealth hotspots expiring last night for 38 LGAs in VIC

Seems they're going to let the hotspots lapse in VIC, NSW, ACT

Here's a look at the very diff circumstances in each state

#covid19aus #covidvic #covid19nsw
1. VIC

Current hotspot declaration: 5 Aug - 7 Oct
Cases: 1,322 daily in Metro (7-day avg)
Vax: 55.6% 2 dose

*Shading = days covered by Commonwealth hotspots declaration
2. NSW

Current hotspot declaration: 26 Jun - 11 Oct
Cases: 584 daily in Greater Sydney (7-day avg)
Vax: 70.3% 2 doses
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(