Thread by @TheCryptoLark

Later in July, starting from the 13th Grayscale will begin the unlock of around 41,000 #bitcoin worth of GBTC shares. But WTF does this actually mean and should you be worried.

You need to read this thread!

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1 - FUD master in chief JP Morgan is saying that it will dump BTC to 25k. I tend to never believe what these criminal financial terrorists say as a rule of thumb.

cryptoslate.com/jpmorgan-says-…

1.1 Celsius CEO Mashinsky thinks it will cause a big sell off. BUT his maths are epicly badly flawed. He says 20 billion (570K BTC) will be unlocked which is categorically not true., it is 41k BTC. Sounds like someone is shorting or highly misinformed?

https://twitter.com/Mashinsky/status/1411903876857569280

2 According to bybt 41,386 worth of Bitcoin will be released by the end of July. Not the 140,000 that some news outlets are quoting. Is Cointelegraph also shorting or just terrible at reporting?
cointelegraph.com/news/is-bitcoi…

2.1 The single biggest one day unlock in July will be 16,244 BTC worth of shares on the 18th. The BTC for these shares were locked on January 18th. coindesk.com/grayscale-rais…

3 You may notice I keep saying shares. This is because NO spot BTC is being released to market. Instead it is GBTC trust shares. Grayscale investors are forced into a 6 month lock up, and the investors from January are now getting their shares.

4 So will the share unlocks cause a catastrophic price crash for Bitcoin?

Let's look at the numbers.

4.1 No spot BTC being released to market. I can't emphasize this point enough.

4.2 Here are some curious points to consider. There were around 35K BTC of shares unlocked June 20-23 during which BTC also dropped 20%. It also coincided with the biggest China FUD news and miner sell off. Want some more interesting numbers? Cause this shit will blow your mind.

December 19-21 saw 15K BTC shares released. Price dropped 10%.

Big releases in early February had no negative effect since Tesla and Musk forced the markets higher.

March 22 and 24 saw the 17K BTC of shares being released. Bitcoin dropped 14%.

Here's the real big story. From April 14th (the top) until May 20th (one day post bottom) a total of 77,000 Bitcoin worth of GBTC shares were released. The biggest single day release in that period? May 20th, one day after the bottom.

Was someone shorting in advance of this release? This mega unlock period corresponds to a 50% drop in BTC price.

Is it possible this is just correlation and not causation, yes, but you must admit it is super suspiciously timed.

4.3 Remember no actual Bitcoin is being released to market and yet the correlation is incredible. Why are the markets dumping in unison with GBTC unlocks if no spot dumping is happening? It seems very clear that the institutions are shorting big time before major releases.

4.4 It is likely that they will short the coming unlock of 41,000 BTC of shares in late July. Perhaps our Wyckoff spring was a whale fake out? Or is this the fake out now with the release? Remember entire firms of suits are playing 4d chess with us right now.

5 GBTC investors who bought Bitcoin for $36,000 on January 18th are under water, made more painful by the fact that trust shares are trading at a 10% discount to spot price. Plus many borrowed BTC from firms like Blockfi so need to repay loans with interest and pay GBTC premiums.

Many firms entered thinking they would get an easy 30% profit by running arbitrage. This is not the case now. These firms are looking at heavy losses if they sell. Solution, FUD and short.

6 Final thoughts. In theory a GBTC release should have no market impact on spot prices. BUT this market like all markets is massively manipulated and the GBTC product is too complex for most investors so it allows the manipulators to prey on you by spreading misinformation.

6.1 A Bitcoin ETF will literally eliminate the need for this crap. Who the hell will buy GBTC when there is an ETF? C'mon SEC, sort it out already!

6.2 The good news is that after July there won't be any more big GBTC unlocks anytime soon. So August will likely be quite bullish as the effect of the institutions shorting GBTC releases subsides.

6.3 What am I doing? Same old, same old. Buying #bitcoin on a regular basis and if the manipulators drop it in late July due to this malarkey then I will buy more.

Just stack sats and chill my dudes! Don't lay down with these Wall Street dogs, otherwise you will get fleas!