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Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

Jan 4, 2022

How many people are in NSW hospitals *with* Covid but not *for* Covid?

The Daily Telegraph says it's 40-50% of patients

I have data from 2 major hospitals that tell a different story

🧵 1/9

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #COVID19

I asked clinicians from 4 big hospitals for an analysis of a random sample of currently admitted Covid patients

2 could help🙏

Both had very similar breakdowns:

~76-80% of Covid patients admitted *for* Covid illness
~20-24% admitted *with* Covid but for something else

2/9

Some more detail on the samples ...

Hospital A: n=21
Hospital B: n=101

Both samples were randomly selected and statistically significant given total Covid patients at each facility

3/9

Read 11 tweets

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

Dec 31, 2021

🚨 Those NSW hospitalisation numbers are >24 hrs behind and the situation is changing fast

ICU / ventilation increases this morning:

63 / 19 - NSW Health tweet 1
69 / 19 - NSW Health tweet 2
78 / 24 - Patient Flow Portal early AM
80 / 28 - PFP 10.20AM

#covid19aus #COVID19nsw

So from 8PM last night to mid-morning today ...

ICU patients have increased 16%
Ventilated patients have increased 47%

It is a huge jump

Both Omicron and Delta are circulating widely and feeding these numbers

*There are people with both variants in ICU*

We have little idea how much Covid there is in NSW, let alone the Delta v Omicron split

We do not know what hospitalisation / ICU / ventilation rates to expect

The best we can do is report on what is happening *right now*. Not what happened more than 24 hours ago

Read 6 tweets

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

Dec 29, 2021

NSW has deflected responsibility for the massive pressures on the pathology system by focusing public attention on QLD's tourism testing

But in fact sheer case load is also a major factor affecting the testing system's capacity

Quick🧵1/6

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #CovidTesting

Prof Dwyer has confirmed NSW pathology labs use the 'pooling' process outlined by the Reddit thread

Pooling is supposed to help the system process large numbers of samples

Eg. Test 4 samples as a group

Negative? Move on

Positive? Go back and test each sample individually

2/6

Prof Dwyer said today:

'The process of having to go back and retest positive pools takes a lot of time'

and

'The ability to pool is limited by how common the disease is in the community'

So the pooling process is directly affected by more cases / higher positivity rate

3/6

Read 7 tweets

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

Oct 12, 2021

🧭 NSW LGAs late-night monster wrap 👻

NSW as 3 diff outbreaks:

1. Southwest / West Syd: +162 = 4414 (-51%)
2. Rest of Greater Sydney: +50 = 1513 (-56%)
3. Regional NSW: +137 = 3064 (+36%)

Data: Cases today = 14-day sum (% 14-day change)

LGA details 👇
#covid19nsw #covid19aus

Regional NSW -

📍 Central Coast: +20 = 410 (10%) 😏

📍 Illawarra Shoalhaven: +31=851 (-3%) 😃

Kiama: +0 = 3 (-84%)
Shellharbour: +14 = 153 (-21%)
Shoalhaven: +3 = 121 (55%)
Wollongong: +14 = 574 (-2%)

📍 Far West: +1=46 (-45%) 🤗

Broken Hill: +1=30 (-45%)
Wentworth: +0=16

Read 16 tweets

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

Oct 12, 2021

🧭 VIC LGAs late-night monster wrap 👻

VIC as 3 different outbreaks:

1. North/West Metro: +867 = 13,050 (+82%)
2. Rest of Metro: +479 = 6,670 (+352%)
3. Regional VIC: +110 = 1,190 (+441%)

Data: Cases today = 14-day sum (% 14-day change)

LGA details👇

#COVID19Vic #covid19aus

1. North/West Metro (original growth areas) -

📍 North Melbourne: +511=7807 (50%) 😏

Banyule: +24=325 (102%)
Darebin: +53=686 (144%)
Hume: +203=3589 (17%) 👏
Moreland: +63=1135 (46%)
Nillumbik: +6=85 (325%)
Whittlesea: +162=1987 (116%)

📍 West Melbourne: +356=5243 (170%) 😒

Brimbank: +99=1345 (209%)
Hobsons Bay: +25=352 (72%)
Maribyrnong: +30=405 (426%)
Melton: +80=1277 (239%)
Moonee Valley: +35=522 (129%)
Wyndham: +87=1342 (115%)

Read 13 tweets

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

Oct 7, 2021

@healthgovau

Waiting to hear back from @healthgovau media about Commonwealth hotspots expiring last night for 38 LGAs in VIC

Seems they're going to let the hotspots lapse in VIC, NSW, ACT

Here's a look at the very diff circumstances in each state

#covid19aus #covidvic #covid19nsw

1. VIC

Current hotspot declaration: 5 Aug - 7 Oct
Cases: 1,322 daily in Metro (7-day avg)
Vax: 55.6% 2 dose

*Shading = days covered by Commonwealth hotspots declaration

2. NSW

Current hotspot declaration: 26 Jun - 11 Oct
Cases: 584 daily in Greater Sydney (7-day avg)
Vax: 70.3% 2 doses

Read 7 tweets

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